Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

[ZORAVAR]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

If they place their s-300 radars or their soon to be Green Pine radars on the highlands of their portion of the Greater Caucasus and their missile closer to the front wouldn't the radars have line of sight and therefore guide the missile and alert any nearby low altitude SAM's of the attacking aircraft.
I can see Armenian su-25's accomplishing tactical support but strategic bombing of any targets deep into Azerbaijan seems like a suicide mission to me.

Things are far more complex than you think. Instead of writing a whole book on air defence, I will try to keep it simple as follows:

-Deploying early warning/detection radars like Green Pine in ideal locations will help the Azeris detect our aircraft (by the way, they have other detection radars as well).
-The Green Pine radar will alert the S-300 crew of the presence and flight path of an Armenian Su-25.
-But the S-300 can not shoot missiles on the basis of an input from a detection radar (like Green Pine).
-The S-300 command post will still need its to illuminate the aircraft with its tracking radar(which works differently than a detection aircraft).
-The tracking radar of the S-300 battery is still limited by the radar horizon.

If our aircraft are bypassing the S-300 positions, they will be fine. They still run the danger of being shot at by Azeri short range air defences if they overfly them. They also run the risk of facing an Azeri MiG-29 that was scrambled by the alert raised by the detection radars (Green Pine or otherwise).

Planning the mission (while taking all the above in consideration) is the most important part.
Next, is training and preparing for it.
Once you have the above, a successfull mission is within reach.

[gokorik]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Things are far more complex than you think. Insteading of writing a whole book on air defence, I will try to keep it simple as follows:

-Deploying early warning radars like Green Pine in ideal locations will help the Azeris detect our aircraft (by the way, they have other detection radars as well).
-The Green Pine radar will alert the S-300 crew of the presence and flight path of an Armenian Su-25.
-But the S-300 can not shoot missiles on the basis of a input from a detection radar (like Green Pine).
-The S-300 command post will still need its tracking radar to illuminate the aircraft with its tracking radar (which works differently than a detection aircraft).
-The tracking radar of the S-300 battery is still limited by the radar horizon.

If our aircraft are bypassing the S-300 positions, they will be fine. They still run the danger of being shot at by Azeri short range air defences if they overfly them. They also run the risk of facing an Azeri MiG-29 that was scrambled by the alert raised by the detection radars (Green Pine or otherwise).

Planning the mission while taking all the above in consideration, is the most important part. Next, is training and preparing for it. Once you have that, a successfull mission is within reach.

Can't the s-300 engagement radar be placed on the Caucasus mountains while having the missile launcher placed closer to the front?

[gokorik]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uUQZ5...eature=related

at 2:15 that is one ballsy Armenian pilot. some of the lowest high speed flying i've seen on the internet. Have we lost any su-25's in training?

[arakeretzig]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uUQZ5...eature=related

at 2:15 that is one ballsy Armenian pilot. some of the lowest flying i've seen on the internet. Have we lost any su-25's in training?

that's crazy at 2:15, he was max 4 meters above them

[ZORAVAR]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Guys it's been really interesting reading your analyses. (With some reservations regarding political issues being discussed here rather than military). I don't want to sound the least enthusiastic Armenian, but I think we should be more realistic about what our army is capable of doing.
At this point talking about "going all the way to Baku" is in least of the cases a childish dream, with or without a proper air force. Wars are not all about equipment. When we talk about reaching the Caspian, we're talking about 10s of thousands of kilometer squares of lands. Who the hell is going to control that? Our 50,000 active troops? You need half a million men to control such territory filled with enemy civilians!! You don't suggest we throw the 8 million Azeris living in Azerbaijan in the Caspian? Do you? (It'll pollute the Caspian and all the fish would die...poor fish)
Capturing Baku does not only need a Russian approval...It also needs an international approval, and is a mission that can only be carried out by a major power like Russia. It's both unrealistic and the terrain is impossible to maintained after capture...specially by us. (We're talking about years of occupation of an enemy territories crawling with enemy x-military personnel and inhospitable local residents)
And if we at some point capture these lands, and emtpied it of azeris...who's going to live in it? We're not even able to populate Karabakh let alone such a vast country.

In the next war I think our main mission should be to preserve our gains and capture some strategic heights to improve the defense of our final borders, since I believe the next war must end the Karabakh issue once and for all, and we need to establish better borders for Karabakh.

A very sensible and reasonable post.
Don't expect everyone to be as rational and realistic as you are. Patriotic emotionalism can sometimes take some of our dear posters all the way to Baku and beyond.
Some of them are learning a lot by reading this forum.

Anyways, back to topic.

In case of war, our leaders/commanders will have objectives/aims/goals at various levels.
Here is a realistic hierarchy of our goals in case we are attacked:

1. Immediate goal: Hold on to what we have and push the aggressor back.
2. Short term goal: Capture key points (like certain hills, villages etc.) that will make our positions more defensible in case of a prolonged conflict or a future war.
3. Medium term goal: Pushing the borders back to where it will be almost impossible for the enemy to wage another war against us in the future, while destroying its economy and infrastructure. For example, capturing the land all the way to the Kura river.
4. Long term goal: Conquer enough territory so that we have a common border with the Russian federation. That will change the whole geopolitics for the region and guarantee the survival and prosperity of our nation for a long period of time.

Capturing Baku is not interesting. They can keep it and drown in their own excrement or convert it to a city like Dubai, it is up to them.

[ZORAVAR]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Can't the s-300 engagement radar be placed on the Caucasus mountains while having the missile launcher placed closer to the front?

Have you ever seen a SAM battery having its radars in one location and the missiles in another?
In short and without going into too much details: No.

[ZORAVAR]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

I think what Armenia should aim for is not to take over Baku.....but to establih a border with Russia (surround Georgia).
It would not be a good idea for Armenia to start the war (I am against that), but in case of an attack from Azerbaijan into Armenia proper, now that is a different ball game, it would be justified.

Bingo.
And geopolitics in the region will be a whole new ball game in our favour.

It will also be the end of the PanTuranism dream.

[gokorik]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Have you ever seen a SAM battery having its radars in one location and the missiles in another?
In short and without going into too much details: No.

I have not. Ok, what if the missile launchers where in the Caucasus as well. Im looking at google earth and there seems to be a line of sight from the peeks of the mountains to the lowlands surrounding Artsakh. I know getting everything up to the peaks is not possible but I'm sure there are accessible highpoint. I don't mean to be persistent but i am just curious.

[ZORAVAR]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

I have thought about this alot, but forming a border with Russia woule eventually mean 2 things, which are not easy to accomplish

1. Taking over the oil routes to the west...I don't think anyone's gonna let Armenia do that
2. Cutting the contact between Azerbaijan and Turkey (currently through Georgia)...which turkey's not going to allow to happen (i don't know how it may respond...it will take a very deep ananlysis)

Maybe something like this could be possible after Azerbaijan stops from being an energy exporter, but in the current situation...It's almost impossible.

1. There will be no oil route through Armenia. No matter what.
2. Georgia is the weak link between Turkey and Azerbaijan (and the Turan dream). Turkey knows that but can't do much about it. Severing the border between Georgia and Azerbaijan is a heavy punch right on Turkey's face.

Even if it looses the Georgia border, Azerbaijan will still remain a fossile fuel exporter until its reserves dry out. The exports will have to transit entirely through Russia. That is exactly what Russians want: complete control over Azeri oil exports and revenues. Just like the Arab Sheikhdoms are controlled by the USA, Azerbaijan will be controlled by Russia.

[ZORAVAR]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

I have not. Ok, what if the missile launchers where in the Caucasus as well. Im looking at google earth and there seems to be a line of sight from the peeks of the mountains to the lowlands surrounding Artsakh. I know getting everything up to the peaks is not possible but I'm sure there are accessible highpoint. I don't mean to be persistent but i am just curious.

You have already found one reason why not to depoly up there. I am sure you can think of more.
Just ask yourself questions like for example: Can the equipment (especially the Yahoodi made Green Pines) operate at extreme mountain temperatures? How good are they in detecting low flying aircraft against ground clutter? Does range affect radar detection ability? Do the various atmospheric conditions that are common in mountainous places affect radar performance? etc.etc.

And then simply ask: why not simply deploy the S-300s and radars close to what we want to defend?