Is Russia an ally or foe, nowadays?

[hagopn]

Re: Is Russia an ally or foe, nowadays?

The Ittihad simply leveraged this "leftism" and disarmed, completely the "brave revolutionaries." Played like an banjo they were.

[Eddo211]

Re: Is Russia an ally or foe, nowadays?

Londontsi one thing she does say which I very much agree is that we cannot (nor have the ability) to fight two fronts at the same time....

[hagopn]

Re: Is Russia an ally or foe, nowadays?

I certainly agree with the first point she is highlighting, the fallacy of relying, trusting and hoping in "Christian Governments".

Oh, I agree. I meant to say last part of the paragraph.

Second point could be subjective.
You have to remember the environment of the times.
Harsh and oppressive government, populations terrorised with previous local massacres in mind etc.

The social structure was a feudal, peasantry and aloof elite.
Everything had to be done covertly.

Covertly organise and recruit member in a relatively large geographic area with poor communications ( of the times).
Covert financing and smuggling of arms etc.
Loyal to the Government ( Armenian ) citizens etc.

As a matter of fact revolutions do not start with most of the population being armed, prepared, aware etc.

It is started with diehard idealist/visionary/revolutionary core.
Once they appear to be effective its following builds and enters the virtuous cycle and gain recruits.

If you have read Raffi’s "Khente" it portrays the structure and the mood of society of the time.

.

I have read Khent@, but i have also read the editor, benefactor, mentor, advisor to Raffi, Grigor Artsruni. Raffi's ideas were mostly sourced from the writings in Mshak, which was the forum for the Raffis and Leos of the time, the paper that saw the prints of particularly his (Artsruni's) many editorials.

Quite frankly, they, the entourage of Portukalian, Yergarian, Artsruni, etc. had already calculated what critical mass they needed, where they needed to concentrate power, where to have a series of strategic weapons caches, who they needed to have trained and on alert... They in essence had bothered to do a careful enough study of the situation before plugging away at any insurrection. The spring chicken "revolutionaries" that came in later in the game and started blowing up banks destroyed any chance of survival for the absolutely unprepared rural and township populations. Not once did you see any strategic maneuvering.

Yes, the spring chickens were aware of Artsruni's work and his ideas, his weapons depots, and so on. In fact, the Aygestan depot was exposed to the Turkish gendarmes by a spring chicken Dashnak who was "upset because he wanted revenge for being denied the hand of a girl in marriage." This was collected first hand from a genocide survivor interview.

No one bothered to consult the more experienced politicians and leaders, and instead focused their attention on "libertee, egalitee, fraternitee, Ottoman Constitution" with banners of "Vote for Ittihad" carried by Dashnak youth. To his credit, Aram Manugian - an exception to the Dashnak rule - was actually trying to cooperate with Yergarian. The older Hnchak party was also a non-national leftist movement at the core that had no intention of joining an Armeno-centered movement, and they simply also ignored all warning against such rash and impatient acts that would, and always did, only manage to garner retribution in the form of massacres.

[Eddo211]

Re: Is Russia an ally or foe, nowadays?

If Russia decides not to be an ally of Armenia tomorrow will Turkey attack?

A Nato member, 3rd largest military, attacking little Armenia without provocation
political nightmare for ruling party once it turns into a bloody insurgency war
The Christian world will cry continuation of Genocide? lol
Problems from Iran and Russia in decreasing their sphere of influence and bringing NATO to their back door
Destabelising a region that is imperetive for the West to stay stable.
Is Armenia even worth it

To answer my own question

1 I don't think Turkey would have a big problem here
2 I see big problem here
3 No problem for Turkey here
4 Big problem for them, also Iran and Russia supply 90 percent of Turkey's energy
5 some problem here, they may have to wait until the West is done in Syria and plans on Iran
6 I think Armenia is worth it to them however they fear the Diaspora more than Armenia.

[Eddo211]

Re: Is Russia an ally or foe, nowadays?

You never know what Azerbaijan will be to Turkey in the future, but currently they are pushing and fueling Turkism is Azerbaijan. The ambition so far is to expand their influence using the race card AND religion card. Only in 2011 they were "friends of Syria," and now they are funneling terrorist into Syria.

little do Azeris know that once the Turks are done with the Kurds they are next......Turkism is bigger now in Azerbaijan than Turkey (as it seems) and the push is from Azeri Greywolfs into northern Iran, Tabriz area.



OK guys say Russia decides not to be an ally of Armenia tomorrow (close the base and left town), will Turkey attack?

A Nato member, 3rd largest military, attacking little Armenia without provocation
political nightmare for ruling party once it turns into a bloody insurgency war
The Christian world will cry continuation of Genocide? lol
Problems from Iran and Russia in decreasing their sphere of influence and bringing NATO to their back door
Destabelising a region that is imperetive for the West to stay stable.
Is Armenia even worth it

[londontsi]

Re: Is Russia an ally or foe, nowadays?

I don't agree with this last paragraph. It was precisely because of the "socialist fever" and the rush into the revolutionary mood we became Don Quixotic. Some revolutionaries were armed, while most of the population was unarmed, unprepared, unaware, and yet we are blaming "Armenian stupidity in not supporting the revolutionaries"? The stupidest thing we did was not adhere to the Armenakan plan, the plan of preparation and arming of the population, of developing a clear strategy, of consolidating Armenian power in Armenia proper instead of outlying cosmpolitan centers such as Constantinople, Tiflis, Moscow, etcwhich is ignored and not taught to the Armenian public for reason that would embarrass the current "traditional party" establishment beyond repair.

Russian policy toward Armenians was not consistent from 1828 to 1915 to say the least, and the only guarantee to buffer this fluctuation of the Bear's moods was stronger Armenian positioning versus the "revolutionary" gamble of blowing up banks with the hope of securing "Christendom"s sympathy and interference in Ottoman affairs in our favor.

I certainly agree with the first point she is highlighting, the fallacy of relying, trusting and hoping in "Christian Governments".

Second point could be subjective.
You have to remember the environment of the times.
Harsh and oppressive government, populations terrorised with previous local massacres in mind etc.

The social structure was a feudal, peasantry and aloof elite.
Everything had to be done covertly.

Covertly organise and recruit member in a relatively large geographic area with poor communications ( of the times).
Covert financing and smuggling of arms etc.
Loyal to the Government ( Armenian ) citizens etc.

As a matter of fact revolutions do not start with most of the population being armed, prepared, aware etc.

It is started with diehard idealist/visionary/revolutionary core.
Once they appear to be effective its following builds and enters the virtuous cycle and gain recruits.

If you have read Raffi’s "Khente" it portrays the structure and the mood of society of the time.

.

[hagopn]

Re: Is Russia an ally or foe, nowadays?

You never know what Azerbaijan will be to Turkey in the future, but currently they are pushing and fueling Turkism is Azerbaijan. The ambition so far is to expand their influence using the race card AND religion card. Only in 2011 they were "friends of Syria," and now they are funneling terrorist into Syria.

[Eddo211]

Re: Is Russia an ally or foe, nowadays?

Interesting.

I for one have learned not to underestimate Turkish statesmanship or imperialist ambition. Turks are accomplished opportunists and know how to position themselves in geopolitics very professionally, and they have the Saud on their side and many muslims in the Russian federation as levers.

^^^this!

Also it would be wrong to assume That Turks interests is in line with Azerbaijan or that it includes Azeri ambitions or that they may see them as their true turkic brothers....lol

[hagopn]

Re: Is Russia an ally or foe, nowadays?

Interesting.

I for one have learned not to underestimate Turkish statesmanship or imperialist ambition. Turks are accomplished opportunists and know how to position themselves in geopolitics very professionally, and they have the Saud on their side and many muslims in the Russian federation as levers.

[Eddo211]

Re: Is Russia an ally or foe, nowadays?

Eddo, I can think of economic reasons, such as the possible disruption of oil production for Azerbaijan. What other reasons?

Well for example Azerbaijan has alot to loose if not successful in taking NKR back, not only the rath of Armenians but also internal social unrest and political destruction. There are others...

Turkey is a NATO member and Armenia is not Cypress nor the Armenia during Karabakh war.....they invade they be facing hell in a insurgency war run by a professional military, this is not going to be like facing PKK which are bought and payed for by Kemalists.
Regardless if we have Russian support or not both Russia and Iran will not like this move and they know about Turkey's plans. There are more reasons...

Now maybe Azerbaijan is scared of Russia but if you guys think Turks fear Russians you don't know who the real Turks are.