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Regional geopolitics

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  • Re: Regional geopolitics

    Ինչու՞ ԱՄՆ, եւ ինչու՞ հիմա: Ինչ է փոխվել ԱՄՆ քաղաքականության մեջ

    ԻԳՈՐ ՄՈՒՐԱԴՅԱՆ, Քաղաքագետ
    25 Հուլիսի 2015,


    ԱՄՆ ձեռնմուխ է եղել Հայաստանի եւ Ադրբեջանի միջեւ հակամարտության հանգուցալուծման նոր ծրագրերի: Ինչու՞ ԱՄՆ, եւ ինչու՞ հիմա:

    Ռուսաստանը նահանջում է եւ պատրաստ է շատ զիջումների, այդ փվում փսխզիջումների եւ ամենակորստաբեր զիջումների Հարավային կովկասում եւ Կենտրոնական Ասիայում, չխոսելով Ուկրաինայի մասին: Ռուսների հետ այժմ կարելի է պայմանավորվել ինչ ուզես եւ ամերիկացիները հնարավորությունը բաց չեն թողնի:

    Մինսկի խումբը, որը մնացել է միակ ասպարեզը, որտեղ ԱՄՆ եւ Ռուսաստանը մասնակցում են միջազգային հարցերի լուծմանը, պետք է օգտագործվի լիարժեք: Հայաստանը թույլ է տվել քայլեր, որոնք հաստատել են ԱՄՆ առավել հեռատես փորձագետների գնահատականները, եւ հայտնվել է մի իրավիճակում, երբ ոչ մեկին չի հետաքրքրում ոչ ԱՄՆ-ում, ոչ Եվրոպայում: Հայաստանը ջնջել է իրեն Արեւմտյան հանրության շահերից եւ թերեւս ընդմիշտ, համենայն դեպս, տեսանելի ապագայում:

    Հայաստանը չունի գործընկերներ եւ բարեկամներ Արեւմտյան աշխարհում եւ հանձնված է քամիներին, նրա հետ կարելի է անել ինչ կամենաս, բացի ցեղասպան գործողություններից: Ոչ ԱՄՆ եվ ոչ էլ ՆԱՏՕի համար, առավել եվս Եվրամիության համար չկա որեւէ ռեզոն համաձայնել հետագայում էլ ղարաբաղյան նահանգը պահել հայկական վերահսկողության տակ:

    ԱՄՆ առաջ առկա է Թուրքիայի հետ հարաբերությունների կարգավորման խնդիրը, ընդ որում Անկարան այդ անհրաժեշտությանն է գալիս ծեծված կողմի կարգավիճակով: Բայց ինչպես էլ Թուրքիան չընդունի ԱՄՆ պայմանները, ամերիկացիներն էլ պետք է գնան թուրքերին որոշ զիջումների, եւ դա պետք է տեղի ունենա:

    Ընդ որում ԱՄՆ վստահ է, որ ղարաբաղյան նահանգի վերադարձը Ադրբեջանին չի բերի էքսցեսների եւ հայկական բնակչության դեպորտացիայի, բայց կբերի Հայաստանի եւ Ադրբեջանի հանդեպ ԱՄՆ վերահսկողության ուժեղացման, եւ բնականաբար Հարավային Կովկասը Ռուսաստանի ազդեցությունից դուրս բերելուն:

    Հայաստանն ու Սփյուռքի հայկական կազմակերպությունները չկարողացան նույնիսկ փոքր չափով օգտվել թուրք-ամերիկյան հարաբերության վատթարացման երկարատեւ շրջանից /առնվազն 15 տարի/: Հայաստանի համար առաջացավ մի շրջան, երբ ԱՄՆ ձեւավորեց Թուրքայի զսպման գոտի, եւ հետագայում ստեղծվեց Թուրքիայի եւ Ռուսաստանի «կրկնակի զսպման» սխեման:

    Այժմ, երբ Իրանն ու ԱՄՆ կարգավորում են հարաբերությունը, Թուրքիայի եւ Ռուսաստանի համար մնում է միակ ելքը իրավիճակից՝ պայմանավորվել ամերիկացիների հետ Հարավային Կովկասի հարցում: Սակայն, ԱՄՆ ցանկանում է «դուբլ» անել եւ ոչ միայն Իրանի, այլեւ Թուրքիայի հետ հարաբերությունը բերել վերահսկողության իրավիճակի եւ համապատասխանեցնել ԱՄՆ եւ նրա արեւմտյան գործընկերների շահերին:

    Ինչի՞ց ելնելով պետք է Արեւմտյան հանրությունը, ԱՄՆ եւ ՆԱՏՕ-ն պաշտպանեն Հայաստանի շահերը, եթե նա ազդարարել է, որ հանդիսանում է Արեւմուտքի հակառակորդը եւ Ռուսաստանի հլու վասալը: Հայաստանն այդպիսով դառնում է պատժի ենթակա: Խնդիրը այն է, որ միջազգային քաղաքականության մեջ երբեմն վճռորոշ դեր է կատարում ժամանակի գործոնը: Հայաստանն ուշացել է եւ բաց թողել ժամանակը, ընդ որում այս անգամ՝ անհուսորեն: Հայաստանը Ռուսաստանի վասալն է, եւ հայկական հանրության հատկանիշներից մեկը կատարված փաստերի հանդեպ տոտալ անհավատությունն է:

    Երեւի թե, հարկ կլինի ենթարկվել աղետի, համոզվելու համար այն ամենի հարցում, ինչի մասին խոսվել է շատ անգամ: Հայերը բավական հոռետեսորեն եւ թերահավատությամբ ե մոտենում վասալ բառին: Բայց այն, ինչ այժմ ցանկանում են անել Հայաստանի հետ, դա վասալիտետի արդյունք է:

    «Աշխարհը փլվում է, բայց դեռ կարելի է զվարճանալ եւ ժամանակ անցկացնել»:


    - See more at: http://www.lragir.am/index/arm/0/com....ql4pOWXT.dpuf

    Comment


    • Re: Regional geopolitics

      Ինչ է փոխվել ԱՄՆ քաղաքականության մեջ? Nothing new Just conquer the world!
      Your Armenian Lion

      Comment


      • Re: Regional geopolitics

        A U.S. Navy P-3 Orion Maritime patrol aircraft takes off from Incirlik airbase in the southern city of Adana, Turkey, July 26, 2015.© Reuters/Murad Sezer A U.S. Navy P-3 Orion Maritime patrol aircraft takes off from Incirlik airbase in the southern city of Adana, Turkey, July 26, 2015.
        Turkey and the United States have agreed on the outlines of a de facto “safe zone” along the Turkey-Syria border under the terms of a deal that is expected to significantly increase the scope and pace of the U.S.-led air war against the Islamic State in northern Syria, according to U.S. and Turkish officials.

        The agreement includes a plan to drive the Islamic State out of a 68-mile-long area west of the Euphrates River and reaching into the province of Aleppo that would then come under the control of the Syrian opposition. If fully implemented, it would also bring American planes in regular, close proximity to bases, aircraft and air defenses operated by the Syrian government, and directly benefit opposition rebels fighting President Bashar al-Assad’s regime.

        Operations in the targeted area would stop short of meeting long-standing Turkish demands for a full-scale, declared no-fly zone, but the area could eventually become a protected haven for some of the estimated 2x million Syrian civilians who have fled to Turkey.

        The first word of the agreement came last week, when Turkey said it had agreed to allow armed U.S. aircraft to fly out of its base at Incirlik. Turkish jets have begun flying missions into northern Syria.

        [Turkey agrees to allow U.S. military to use its base to attack Islamic State]

        Additional details, including the composition of Syrian opposition forces that are to be inserted on the ground to hold the protected area, are still being worked out, according to the officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the evolving operations.

        “When areas in northern Syria are cleared of the [Islamic State] threat, the safe zones will be formed naturally,” Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu told journalists in Ankara on Saturday. “People who have been displaced can be placed in those safe areas.”

        U.S. officials did not dispute the Turkish description and said U.S. and coalition air cover would effectively operate around the clock as Islamic State targets were located. But they said the United States would not officially designate the area — about 40 miles deep into Syria along the 68-mile stretch of border — a protected zone.

        A senior administration official, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said in a statement late Sunday that “any joint military efforts” with Turkey “will not include the imposition of a no-fly zone.”

        “What we are talking about with Turkey is cooperating to support partners on the ground in northern Syria who are countering ISIL,” the statement said. “The goal is to establish an ISIL-free zone and ensure greater security and stability along Turkey’s border with Syria.” ISIL is another term for the Islamic State.

        NATO’s secretary general said Sunday that the alliance’s 28 members will hold consultations Tuesday in Brussels in response to a Turkish request that followed a suicide bombing in Turkey last week. The consultations are under NATO’s Article 4, allowing any member to convene a meeting when it believes its territorial integrity or security is threatened.

        NATO deployed Patriot anti-missile batteries to Turkey in xearly 2013, after Turkey charged in Article 4 consultations that its citizens had been killed by Syrian government missiles fired across the border and that Syrian planes had violated its airspace.

        The Obama administration has long resisted establishing Syrian safe zones, protected by U.S. and coalition air power, and has said its air operations would target only the Islamic State. The Pentagon has maintained that targeting regions of western Syria, near where the government is fighting numerous rebel and militant groups, could provoke a clash with Syrian air defenses that are centered in that area.

        Turkey had previously refused use of Incirlik as a base for U.S. air attacks unless the United States agreed to establish a protected zone along the border.

        But several aspects of the conflict have changed for both governments since they first formally discussed the issue late last year.

        [For Turkey and U.S., at odds over Syria, a 60-year alliance falters]

        Assad’s forces have lost considerable ground in the northwest, including in and around Aleppo, Syria’s second-largest city, to a coalition of moderate and non-

        Islamic State militant forces in recent months. At the same time, the Islamic State, driven by xKurdish-led forces out of many of its northern strongholds to the east of the Euphrates toward the Iraqi border, began to push westward. The militants now control Syria along the border from the river to a point near the Syrian town of Azaz, north of Aleppo.

        Turkey’s change of heart began about six weeks ago, after a push by the Islamic State in May to capture Azaz, the most vital border crossing for U.S.-backed moderate rebels. The offensive was kept at bay, with the belated help of limited U.S. airstrikes. Syrian rebels, who called urgently for air support at the time, complained that convoys of Islamic State soldiers had converged toward their positions without any intervention by coalition warplanes.

        U.S. officials subsequently noted that those Turkish-requested strikes would have been more effective if planes could have flown from Incirlik, about 250 miles away, rather than from a faraway base in Bahrain.

        [This Turkish base could be a game-changer in the war against Islamic State]

        The zone now open for U.S. strikes stretches east from Azaz to Jarablus, on the Euphrates. According to Turkish media accounts, it will extend southward to the town of al-Bab, on the outskirts of Aleppo, but will not include Aleppo itself.

        It was unclear whether the administration has informed the Syrian government of its new operations in the northwest. The U.S. government had indirectly warned Assad not to interfere with U.S. airstrikes against the Islamic State that began in September in northern, central and eastern Syria. But those strikes were not seen as a problem, since the Syrian government had basically ceded those areas to the militants and conducted minimal operations.

        Once the area is cleared, the plan is to give control to as-yet-unidentified moderate Syrian rebel groups. The United States and Turkey have differing interpretations as to which groups can be defined as “moderate.”

        It would then be possible for displaced civilians to find refuge in the area, something that would go a long way toward fulfilling Turkish ambitions for a way to ease the refugee problem in Turkey.

        Eliminating the Islamic State from the area under focus would be a major strategic blow to the group, depriving the militants of their last remaining points of access to the outside world. After losing control of the important border crossing of Tal Abyad to Kurdish forces in June, the Islamic State controls only two small crossings, at Jarablus and al-Rai, through which to smuggle foreign fighters. Those border towns are the next priority in the fight against the Islamic State, U.S. and Turkish officials say.

        The speed with which the militants crumbled in Tal Abyad, under withering U.S. airstrikes and little in the way of ground fighting, demonstrated that air power can work against the group, U.S. and Kurdish officials said. Tal Abyad is located east of the Euphrates and the city of Kobane, where Kurdish-led forces, assisted by U.S. airstrikes and Turkish supply lines, drove out the Islamic State early this year.

        The agreement will also shift the dynamics in other parts of northern Syria in ways that will work to Turkey’s advantage. Turkey has watched with alarm as Syrian Kurds have become the beneficiary of U.S. strikes east of the Euphrates.

        “After the capture of Tal Abyad with significant U.S. assistance, the next step would have been the Kurds moving west of the Euphrates and taking this large amount of territory,” said Soner Cagaptay of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

        “This helped accelerate the deal. Now you’re going to see massive aerial bombing in the region, and it will not end up in the hands of Kurds exclusively,” he said.

        The head of the Kurdish group that has been benefiting from the U.S. strikes expressed concern that the plan for the zone would eventually lead to the entry of Turkish troops in the area.

        Saleh Muslim, leader of Syria’s Democratic Union Party (PYD), has frequently accused Turkey of supporting the Islamic State to counter Kurdish influence and said that any Turkish forces entering Syria would be viewed as “invaders.”

        The PYD and its military wing, the YPG, are allied with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), whose bases in Iraq were hit by Turkish airstrikes early Saturday. The PKK wants to establish a Kurdish state in a region that currently encompasses parts of Turkey, Iraq, Syria and Iran. Both the United States and Turkey have labeled it a terrorist organization.

        Sly reported from Beirut.
        Hayastan or Bust.

        Comment


        • Re: Regional geopolitics

          Հայաստանի դերը վերաիմաստավորելու շանսը
          2015-07-29

          Հեղինակ՝ Մուսա Միքայելյան

          http://www.1in.am/1682052.html

          Թուրքիայում գրեթե պատերազմ է: Արդեն մի քանի օր այդ երկրում ընթանում է պայքար իշխանությունների և Քրդական աշխատավորական կուսակցության զինված խմբերի միջև, և այդ պայքարն արդեն երկուստեք հանգեցնում է զոհերի: ՆԱՏՕ-ի խորհուրդը, որը երեկ գումարվել է Թուրքիայի խնդրանքով, դատապարտել է Թուրքիայի ներսում իրականացվող ահաբեկչությունները: Միաժամանակ, սակայն, այդ դատապարտումը, ըստ էության, ավելի խորհրդանշական բնույթ ունի:

          Իհարկե, չէին կարող չդատապարտել, սակայն, ըստ էության, պարզ չէ, թե ինչ մեխանիզմներ կարող են կիրառվել թուրք-քրդական բախումը ծավալումից զերծ պահելու համար: Եվ այնպիսի տպավորություն է, որ միջազգային հանրությունը Թուրքիային որոշակի քարտ-բլանշ տալով Սիրիայում և Իրաքում ռազմական գործողությունների հարցում, որ Անկարան իրականացնում է իբր թե «Իսլամական պետության» դեմ, իսկ իրականում ոչ պակաս նաև քրդերի, մյուս կողմից՝ ներսում Էրդողանին կառավարելու և վերահսկելու համար, բացել են երկրորդ ճակատը քրդերի միջոցով:

          Այսպես, թե այնպես, Թուրքիայում կարծեք թե ծավալվում է բազմակողմ դիմակայության մի նոր գործընթաց, ինչը պարզապես սահմանակից է Հայաստանին: Այս իրավիճակում Հայաստանը ոչ միայն աչալրջորեն պետք է հետևի տեղի ունեցողին, այլ նաև պատրաստ լինի ցանկացած զարգացման: Հայաստանի համար որևէ զարգացում այս պարագայում չպետք է լինի անսպասելի, և որևէ զարգացման պարագայում Հայաստանն իրավունք չունի հույսը դնել որևէ երաշխիքի վրա: Պետք են հստակ բազմաշերտ մեխանիզմներ, այսինքն՝ երաշխիքները պետք է լինեն ոչ թե խոսքով, այլ մեխանիզմներով:

          Ըստ որում՝ Հայաստանը պետք է պատրաստ լինի ոչ միայն թուրքական ուղղությամբ, քանի որ «կրտսեր եղբայրը» կարող է օգնության դիմել՝ ուշադրությունը շեղելու համար, և Էրդողանը քրդերի հարցերը արագ լուծելու համար Ալիևին կարող է խնդրել միջազգային հանրության ուշադրությունը շեղել Ղարաբաղի վրա: Ըստ որում՝ բացառել պետք չէ և այն, որ Էրդողանը այս հարցում խնդրի նույնիսկ ոչ թե Ալիևին, այլ Պուտինին, որի հետ հեռախոսազրույց էր ունեցել մի քանի օր առաջ՝ ԱՄՆ նախագահի հետ հեռախոսազրույցից հետո:

          Մի բան անհերքելի է՝ տարածաշրջանը մտնում է նոր ցնցումների և վերադասավորումների փուլ, և տեղի են ունենալու դերերի հիմնարար փոփոխություններ: Այս առումով, իհարկե, շատ դժվար է պատկերացնել Հայաստանի դերը, որը սեպտեմբերի 3-ից հետո վերածվել է եվրասիական կղզյակի: Սակայն բոլոր դեպքերում, եթե Երևանը պատրաստ լինի գոնե և պատկերացնի մյուսների դերերը և հնարավոր փոփոխությունները, ապա շանս կա, որ հընթացս կարող է վերաիմաստավորվել նաև Հայաստանի դերը: Թեև դա պետական շանս է, իսկ հայաստանյան, այսպես ասած, վերնախավերը ուշադիր են միայն անձնական շանսերի դեպքում:

          Comment


          • Re: Regional geopolitics

            PAPERS PROVING ANKARA-ISIS COOPERATION DISCOVERED BY AMERICANS

            12:45, 29.07.2015
            Region:World News, Turkey
            Theme: Politics

            The documents about cooperation between Turkey and the Islamic State
            have been caught by the American side, The Guardian correspondent in
            the Middle East Martin Chulov told BirGun.

            The British reporter said that during the murder of ISIS member
            responsible for the sale of oil the American side discovered a large
            number of papers and e-documents disclosing cooperation between Ankara
            and ISIS.

            The journalist stressed that the US will not disclose the contents of
            documents, but will use them as a trump card against Turkey if needed.

            Turkish security forces kept secret the data about who exactly was
            buying oil from Islamist terrorists.

            According to the journalist, Turkey and ISIS have common interests
            related to the elimination of the Kurds and Assad.

            http://news.am/eng/news/279102.html




            [
            Hayastan or Bust.

            Comment


            • Re: Regional geopolitics

              Here is a BS story showing just how bias and corrupt institutions like the IMF are. Here they are hailing Ukraine who is in worst shape then Armenia but they always only report negatively on us.

              Washington (AFP) - Ukraine's government is determined to undertake long-needed reforms, making the economic picture in the country very encouraging, International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde said Wednesday.

              After a horrible track record with the global crisis lender over the past two decades, Lagarde said the current government is taking the necessary steps on fiscal reform and fighting corruption to turn the country around.

              "Ukraine has been an incredibly encouraging situation," she said in an online press conference.

              Despite the ongoing security challenge with pro-Moscow rebels occupying large parts of the country's east, "we have seen political determination to change the face of Ukraine," she said.

              Confronted by a long list of deep-seated policy challenges, the country's leaders understand that "they have to attack on all fronts."

              Despite strong forces threatening to destabilize the country, "the Ukrainian authorities have actually delivered," she said, showing "very strong political deliberation."

              The encouraging words came amid doubts that the country can surmount all of its challenges -- including restructuring huge debts with private creditors and fending off pressure from secessionists -- to be able to restore the economy to solid growth.

              But Lagarde emphasized the gains that are being made, including in the talks with bondholders.

              "We are encouraged that that negotiation is making progress," she said, adding she hopes the bondholders "are sensible on what can be achieved."
              Hayastan or Bust.

              Comment


              • Re: Regional geopolitics

                Originally posted by Haykakan View Post
                Here is a BS story showing just how bias and corrupt institutions like the IMF are. Here they are hailing Ukraine who is in worst shape then Armenia but they always only report negatively on us.

                Washington (AFP) - Ukraine's government is determined to undertake long-needed reforms, making the economic picture in the country very encouraging, International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde said Wednesday.

                After a horrible track record with the global crisis lender over the past two decades, Lagarde said the current government is taking the necessary steps on fiscal reform and fighting corruption to turn the country around.

                "Ukraine has been an incredibly encouraging situation," she said in an online press conference.

                Despite the ongoing security challenge with pro-Moscow rebels occupying large parts of the country's east, "we have seen political determination to change the face of Ukraine," she said.

                Confronted by a long list of deep-seated policy challenges, the country's leaders understand that "they have to attack on all fronts."

                Despite strong forces threatening to destabilize the country, "the Ukrainian authorities have actually delivered," she said, showing "very strong political deliberation."

                The encouraging words came amid doubts that the country can surmount all of its challenges -- including restructuring huge debts with private creditors and fending off pressure from secessionists -- to be able to restore the economy to solid growth.

                But Lagarde emphasized the gains that are being made, including in the talks with bondholders.

                "We are encouraged that that negotiation is making progress," she said, adding she hopes the bondholders "are sensible on what can be achieved."
                Yes, the article is propaganda. The corruption in that country dwarfs Hayastan's corruption. The new head of the country is a hand picked by the "west" yes man, who got to be a billionair via corruption.
                Concerning the IMF "bond holders" ... There is the world wide scam. These bond holders are all about making a profit for themselves and have nothing to do with helping anyone at anytime.
                The IMF is the front for these bond holders, who are the global thieves.
                The whole IMF scam is heartless to the general population and is exclusively designed to benifit the ultra elite (greed ridden).
                HARK

                Comment


                • Re: Regional geopolitics

                  Originally posted by Haykakan View Post
                  Here is a BS story showing just how bias and corrupt institutions like the IMF are. Here they are hailing Ukraine who is in worst shape then Armenia but they always only report negatively on us.

                  Washington (AFP) - Ukraine's government is determined to undertake long-needed reforms, making the economic picture in the country very encouraging, International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde said Wednesday.

                  After a horrible track record with the global crisis lender over the past two decades, Lagarde said the current government is taking the necessary steps on fiscal reform and fighting corruption to turn the country around.

                  "Ukraine has been an incredibly encouraging situation," she said in an online press conference.

                  Despite the ongoing security challenge with pro-Moscow rebels occupying large parts of the country's east, "we have seen political determination to change the face of Ukraine," she said.

                  Confronted by a long list of deep-seated policy challenges, the country's leaders understand that "they have to attack on all fronts."

                  Despite strong forces threatening to destabilize the country, "the Ukrainian authorities have actually delivered," she said, showing "very strong political deliberation."

                  The encouraging words came amid doubts that the country can surmount all of its challenges -- including restructuring huge debts with private creditors and fending off pressure from secessionists -- to be able to restore the economy to solid growth.

                  But Lagarde emphasized the gains that are being made, including in the talks with bondholders.

                  "We are encouraged that that negotiation is making progress," she said, adding she hopes the bondholders "are sensible on what can be achieved."


                  Ukraine vote gives government power to suspend foreign debt payments

                  http://www.theguardian.com/world/201...-debt-payments

                  Ukraine’s parliament on Tuesday handed ministers the power to suspend foreign debt payments to defend against “unscrupulous” creditors.

                  The vote was the latest episode in an escalating row over a $25bn (£16bn) rescue package with the International Monetary Fund and European Union.

                  “In case of attacks on Ukraine by unscrupulous creditors, this moratorium will protect state assets and the state sector,” the prime minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk said.......

                  .
                  Politics is not about the pursuit of morality nor what's right or wrong
                  Its about self interest at personal and national level often at odds with the above.
                  Great politicians pursue the National interest and small politicians personal interests

                  Comment


                  • Re: Regional geopolitics

                    THE HYDRA OF THE CASPIAN SEA: IRAN'S NAVAL STRATEGY

                    28.07.2015 Author: Matthew Crosston

                    Column: Politics
                    Region: Middle East
                    Country: Iran

                    The Iranian military is predominately thought of for its capabilities
                    and strategy in the Gulf. Though the competitors differ in the Caspian
                    Sea, the Iranian Military has a similar composition and strategy in
                    this theater. The Strait of Hormuz is a global chokepoint for the flow
                    of oil in which Iran is able to leverage the asymmetric tactics of its
                    comparatively small navy to conduct area-denial operations. Although
                    the Caspian Sea doesn't have a chokepoint that would be the focus of
                    the Iranian military, it utilizes these same tactics and capabilities
                    to enforce their holdings and claims in the Caspian Sea.

                    Although the Caspian Sea states haven't officially come to terms on
                    their respective maritime claims, Iran currently firmly controls about
                    12% of the Caspian Sea. The current Iranian holdings are very difficult
                    from an economic perspective as they are resource rich but also much
                    deeper than the rest of the Caspian Sea, which makes extracting these
                    resources far more difficult. This is a major contributing factor to
                    the Iranian claim to fully 20% of the Caspian Sea, which conflicts
                    with other states' claims. There are essentially two threats to Iran in
                    the Caspian Sea over these territorial claims: Russia and Azerbaijan.

                    During the Russian Empire and the Soviet Union the Caspian Sea was
                    primarily under Moscow's control. Even after the dissolution of the
                    Soviet Union, Russia has consistently sought to be the major power
                    in the Caspian Sea. This is reflected in three ways. The first way is
                    that the Russian Navy maintains the largest fleet in the Caspian Sea.

                    The second way is through gearing the other Caspian states against
                    Iran, being Russia's main regional competitor, through soft power moves
                    such as joint military exercises and trade agreements. The third way
                    is through overtly blocking Iranian attempts to build up its navy in
                    the Caspian Sea, such as when Russia denied Iran the use of its rivers
                    to transport a warship from the Gulf to the Caspian Sea. Being that
                    Russia is the major military power in the Caspian Sea, an asymmetric
                    defense similar to Iranian strategy in the Gulf would translate well.

                    The second threat to Iranian claims in the Caspian comes from
                    Azerbaijan. Although not a large military threat, Iranian claims
                    in the Caspian Sea overlap mostly with the Azeri claims. This is
                    primarily due to the contested areas having prime depth for resource
                    exploitation. In particular the proposed Western-backed pipeline, which
                    Iran opposes, would traverse this area and head through Azerbaijan
                    towards the West. Iran has tested these waters with an incursion
                    by an oil platform which was virtually unopposed by the lackluster
                    Azeri Navy. With this type of incursion Iran has shown it is ready
                    to engage in its preferred naval strategy of area-denial to enforce
                    new acquisitions.

                    Even the mighty US Navy, the world's strongest and a sign of global
                    American power, is frustrated by the Iranian Navy. The Strait of
                    Hormuz is able to be blocked off by Iran due to its leveraging of
                    asymmetric tactics to conduct area denial. Although this scenario
                    hasn't been tested in actual combat it has shown to be worrisome to
                    the US with the adoption of doctrines such as AirSea Battle which
                    focus on countering anti access/area denial capabilities. Therefore
                    it is logical that this Iranian strategy would be employed in the
                    Caspian Sea to enforce its claims against local neighbors.

                    The Iranian chain of command is decentralized in that small unit
                    commanders have enough autonomy to carry out the overarching strategy
                    even with infrequent communication between itself and central command,
                    which creates capacity to absorb attempts to decapitate the command
                    structure from its constituent units. The Iranian military copies
                    this strategy with all of its serving units beyond the navy, meaning
                    its entire military could operate in this manner within a Caspian
                    Sea conflict.

                    To supplement the decentralization of the Iranian military command
                    structure is a culture of sacrifice within the Iranian military. This
                    is in reference to the motivation for service-martyrdom that is highly
                    emphasized within the Iranian military. To get the most out of its
                    asymmetric strategy it is important that the Iranian military is
                    able to rely on their personnel to put everything on the line to be
                    able to accomplish their mission even if they are cut off from their
                    command structure. This is also rumored to involve the planned usage
                    of suicide attacks as part of Iran's military strategy. Regardless
                    of the use of suicide attacks or not, the Iranian military has plenty
                    of tools at its disposal to secure its claims in the Caspian Sea.

                    Iranian surface ships are capable of extensive mine-laying operations
                    which deny an area to their enemy and serve as a deterrent to any
                    other waters that the Iranian Navy operates. Iranian submarines
                    also serve this purpose in that their existence is a deterrent to
                    enemy naval movements. Closer to the coastlines, small attack boats
                    have the capacity to ambush naval ships from concealed positions
                    in suicide or hit-and-run attacks. Further inland Iran still has
                    land-based missiles and aircraft which are able to be deployed to
                    secure and deny their claims against enemies. Finally, Iran has the
                    ability to deploy Special Forces to conduct sabotage, hit-and-run,
                    and suicide attacks against enemy military facilities. Therefore, the
                    Iranian military has the ability to at least significantly frustrate
                    the ability of an aggressor to encroach upon Iranian claims within
                    the Caspian Sea, similarly to their strategy in the Gulf, even when
                    faced by a supposedly superior military rival like the United States
                    or Russia.

                    The growing geostrategic importance of the Caspian Sea has been
                    reflected in the growing Iranian military emphasis on it. Whether
                    it is the threats of the powerful Russian Caspian Flotilla wanting
                    to retain power over the Caspian or Azerbaijan's overlapping claims
                    with Western backing, Iran feels backed into a corner. Thus having a
                    doctrine of being able to operate with 'the command head cut off',
                    pushing a martyr morale throughout their military, and emphasizing
                    tools to conduct area-denial operations makes the Iranian military
                    a formidable opponent. It is potentially the hydra lurking beneath
                    the surface of the Caspian's contested waters, making an impact far
                    beyond the immediate region.

                    Dr. Matthew Crosston is Professor of Political Science and Director
                    of the International Security and Intelligence Studies program at
                    Bellevue University, and Taylor S. Morse, a Master's graduate student
                    in the ISIS Program at Bellevue University, studying under Dr.

                    Crosston, exclusively for the online magazine "New Eastern Outlook"

                    First
                    appeared:http://journal-neo.org/2015/07/28/th...aval-strategy/

                    Comment


                    • Re: Regional geopolitics

                      Originally posted by londontsi View Post
                      Ukraine vote gives government power to suspend foreign debt payments

                      http://www.theguardian.com/world/201...-debt-payments

                      Ukraine’s parliament on Tuesday handed ministers the power to suspend foreign debt payments to defend against “unscrupulous” creditors.

                      The vote was the latest episode in an escalating row over a $25bn (£16bn) rescue package with the International Monetary Fund and European Union.

                      “In case of attacks on Ukraine by unscrupulous creditors, this moratorium will protect state assets and the state sector,” the prime minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk said.......

                      .
                      Heh yeh ok ...like which assets are to be protected and from which creditors? I got a feeling there will be a great deal of discrimination based on these factors. Armenia is far more independent then Ukraine will ever be.
                      Hayastan or Bust.

                      Comment

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