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Regional geopolitics

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  • Re: Regional geopolitics

    In this post I will try to answer both Vrej and Haykakan.
    First we should realize that no side is truly and honestly working with us or anybody. Neither Russia nor US or France, Germany or what have you. They operate in their interest.
    We should also realize that our job is not what this sides are promising us or have done in past, but what their plans are and based on geostrategic factors how they will behave in our region given the conflict between them is heating up every day and it could get very ugly at the end.
    We should see clearly what southern caucasus represents for them and what are they willing to do for their plans. It is obvious that southern caucasus has much more value to Russia then to US. And Russia is willing to go the extra mile in securing it's interests here, unlike US, for whom it is only a part of overall worldwide strategy game. So we should expect that Russia will ultimately have more impact in our area.
    Not only lot of people, but also, looks like EU and US, and especially Ukrainian nationalists and liberals did not calculate correctly of what strategic importance Ukraine had for Russia and what it was willing to do to protect it''s interests in what it considers it's immediate and vital sphere. They are facing the consequences now. Would we like to be in their place?
    Russia needed a platform in southern caucasus. Did not matter Armenia, Azerbaijan or Georgia( better it is us right?). It was willing do do whatever necessary to get it. At the time of arms supplies to Baku, Armenian government was signaling in every way that it wants to sign association agreement with EU(we see now how Russia reacts on it about in Ukraine). At that time, meanwhile, azerbaijan was and still is signaling that it does not appreciate very much EU democracy principles. I am convinced that very few in our circles have realized what dangers would come from signing that EU deal. Completely throwing Russia's support for Azeris.
    I don't see any backstabbing from Russian side. It is just matter of strategic interests. US and all other powers do the same. It is a political immaturity for any politicians, especially for opposition in not being able to see behind their kiddish "amigo" dreams. Or it represents a total blindness due to political convictions. Or it is a deliberate attempt to mislead Armenian public in spreading very unrealistic propagandist ideas.
    If we cannot see whats about what, in around us, it's our problem.
    We have paid very dearly in 1918-21 for political blindness by not seeing Soviet expansion and sticking with west, while turks on both sides were quick on taking advantage of.
    I have said it before and I will say it again. Final Artsakh game will be played amongst Armenia-Azerbaijan-Russia.
    It is up to us what the outcome will be. I agree with Haykakan that Armenia is not in position to dictate changes around(in this matter very few countries are indeed. And none of our immediate neighbors). But Armenia must correctly navigate in any given political development in region in order to minimize any negative effects and in case take advantage of opportunities for it's own benefit fully. This is the ultimate possible sovereignty we can expect. Anything else is empty daydreaming and only festers our national cohesive resolve.
    No ifs buts and wishfulness. It should be every Armenian's first job to realize what we need to do as individual and nation and do it. Regardless of who backstabbed who, who is more civilized or who is nicer to us.
    Our main problem is not knowing what we want and what is realistic. Some people want an overnight switzerland in armenia. Some want a Glendale in Yerevan. We loose lot of opportunities that way. We tend to mix our individual aspirations with national ones.
    Who says that it is impossible to realize national advancement goals after becoming Eurasian Customs member? Remember Yugoslavia in Soviet era? Being a communist state, It had one of the best soviet block and European living standards (until US and EU got to it). Belgrade had Soviet market to it's own in producing and selling western consumer goods to, and also kept political and economic closeness with west.
    Who says that life in every country in EU is nice and dandy? Or good future is guaranteed?
    I find that Serj Sargsian has a very realistic foreign policy that threads so thinly between powers and is outmost diversified. Today's news for example. In one day he hosts Francois Hollande and talks about special association and relation with Europe in one hand, makes remarks that US latest statements about artsakh are no news and and Madrid principles are the base for any agreement and also talks about completing final touches on Customs Union Agreement. It is obvious that what he does is probably the best political moves policies our nation has seen in long time. I appreciate that. If somebody else in his place, we probably would already be an enemy to Russia or West.
    I don't appreciate his internal policies, or absence of them. But in that he is not the only guilty but all of us. Somehow we have not cleaned up the soviet mentality in Armenia. Nor we have had a plan to do so. All the oligarchs, corruption and laziness is left over soviet legacy(I think even russians have managed to change that more successfully in them than we). We need more civil initiatives. More intellectual input.
    Armenia has to create a much more balanced internal playing field for all. We have to overcome a lot of bad mentalities. Like clans, backwardness, corruption.
    No east or west block will do our job or prevent us from doing it.
    In realising the thruth and behaving realistically, we can and must breake out from cycles of bouncing between diffrent powers ineffectively and aimlessly as result of our political immaturity that as a habbit goes back few centuries.
    Last edited by Hakob; 05-13-2014, 10:02 PM.

    Comment


    • Re: Regional geopolitics

      That was a good post Hakob. I would not attribute however the failings of internal affairs on "soviet mentality"...this oligarchy is typical not to just soviet block states but it is prevalent in all capitalist markets as well.A good example is Comcast which is well on its way from going from oligarchy to monopoly and there are tons of examples like this. The soviet mentality relates to small bribes for like traffic, school, prison sentence...these are what the public saw in soviet society but not so much in western society but this does not mean that bribery does not happen in the west-on the contrary in USA the whole government structure is based on bribery and no branch of government is exempt-not even the supreme court. Soviet bribes were the amateur versions of what is done in the west on a much larger scale via special interest groups, super pacts ..If you takeinto account the resulting effects of bribery the negative effects on the world from the bribery in the west far outweighs the bribery in the exsoviet states. Since the western version is legalized, people do not see it as bribery but that is exactly what it is. Sure Armenian society has a lot of growing up to do but so do other societies. Sure some attitudes in Armenia are backwards but it is also true that people of the west are horribly misinformed and ignorent of the reality around them. This is not a competition about which society is worst..i am merely pointing out that you can't blame things simply on "soviet mentality" there is a lot more to this story plus it implies that non soviet states do not have corruption, backwardness..and this is very far from the truth.
      Hayastan or Bust.

      Comment


      • Re: Regional geopolitics

        Originally posted by Haykakan View Post
        That was a good post Hakob. I would not attribute however the failings of internal affairs on "soviet mentality"...this oligarchy is typical not to just soviet block states but it is prevalent in all capitalist markets as well.A good example is Comcast which is well on its way from going from oligarchy to monopoly and there are tons of examples like this. The soviet mentality relates to small bribes for like traffic, school, prison sentence...these are what the public saw in soviet society but not so much in western society but this does not mean that bribery does not happen in the west-on the contrary in USA the whole government structure is based on bribery and no branch of government is exempt-not even the supreme court. Soviet bribes were the amateur versions of what is done in the west on a much larger scale via special interest groups, super pacts ..If you takeinto account the resulting effects of bribery the negative effects on the world from the bribery in the west far outweighs the bribery in the exsoviet states. Since the western version is legalized, people do not see it as bribery but that is exactly what it is. Sure Armenian society has a lot of growing up to do but so do other societies. Sure some attitudes in Armenia are backwards but it is also true that people of the west are horribly misinformed and ignorent of the reality around them. This is not a competition about which society is worst..i am merely pointing out that you can't blame things simply on "soviet mentality" there is a lot more to this story plus it implies that non soviet states do not have corruption, backwardness..and this is very far from the truth.
        Right Haykakan. But I am talking about quality of life. It is right that there is deeper corruption in west. But at least society is much more healthier from every level corruption. There is established official and private ethical standards in public service here or in most levels of life, which there is not in Armenia. You see a public responcibiliy in every level in west. If you have any interaction with any service in Armenia, you won't know if you are dealing with "goghakan" or what. Even store clerks or teachers are ready to act like street thugs. Otherwise the society has not been formed very healthy yet. That contributes more to emigration than anything else. Even the most complaining and unfortunate person in there, given opportunity, can behave as biggest Oligarkh or thug. This is our fault.
        Last edited by Hakob; 05-14-2014, 05:16 AM.

        Comment


        • Re: Regional geopolitics

          Here in the words of Lavrov of how Russia regards Ukraine and Georgia's acceptance in NATO. Dragging Ukraine into NATO negative for European security - Lavrov
          Published time: May 14, 2014 11:48
          Edited time: May 14, 2014 13:13 Get short URL

          Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov (Reuters/Sergei Karpukhin)
          The seeds of the ongoing turmoil in Ukraine were sown back in April 2008, when NATO suggested that Ukraine and Georgia should move closer to the alliance, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said.

          “The seeds for the current crisis were sown in 2008 in April during the NATO summit in Bucharest, when NATO leaders stated in a declaration that Georgia and Ukraine would be in NATO,” the senior Russian diplomat told Bloomberg in an interview.

          He said that the Georgian president at the time, Mikhail Saakasvhili, thought the statement gave him a license to resolve the problem of Georgia’s breakaway region, South Ossetia, by force and he launched an invasion.

          “He was certainly motivated by this NATO promise,” Lavrov stressed.

          Georgia or Ukraine becoming part of NATO would be a critical threat to Russia’s national security, Lavrov explained, and something that Russia would simply not accept.

          “The attempts to draw Ukraine into NATO would be negative for the entire system of European security and we would be categorically against it,” he said.

          While Russia would not object to Ukraine joining the EU, provided that Ukrainians comprehend and accept fully the economic repercussions this would bring, changing Ukraine’s neutral military status is out of the question for Moscow.

          This is especially true considering NATO’s record of breaking its promises not to advance its military assets towards Russian borders, Lavrov said.
          RT.

          Comment


          • Re: Regional geopolitics

            Originally posted by Hakob View Post
            Right Haykakan. But I am talking about quality of life. It is right that there is deeper corruption in west. But at least society is much more healthier from every level corruption. There is established official and private ethical standards in public service here or in most levels of life, which there is not in Armenia. You see a public responcibiliy in every level in west. If you have any interaction with any service in Armenia, you won't know if you are dealing with "goghakan" or what. Even store clerks or teachers are ready to act like street thugs. Otherwise the society has not been formed very healthy yet. That contributes more to emigration than anything else. Even the most complaining and unfortunate person in there, given opportunity, can behave as biggest Oligarkh or thug. This is our fault.
            Yes i see your point and this type of society takes time to form and it requires stability to develop. Another thing that is missing is sovereignty which i mentioned earlier. Sovereignty makes you feel responsible for your own actions thus the more in charge you feel about your life the more responsible you will behave(generally speaking). Armenia has never had sovereignty and not much stability either. Education wise Armenia has excelled in some spheres but when it comes to psychology, sociology, behavioral sciences.. it has much to learn since it has concentrated education on medicine, physics, chemistry.. and neglected the other fields. All of this is fixable but requires time and stability which are not guaranteed to us.
            Hayastan or Bust.

            Comment


            • Re: Regional geopolitics

              Originally posted by Haykakan View Post
              Yes i see your point and this type of society takes time to form and it requires stability to develop. Another thing that is missing is sovereignty which i mentioned earlier. Sovereignty makes you feel responsible for your own actions thus the more in charge you feel about your life the more responsible you will behave(generally speaking). Armenia has never had sovereignty and not much stability either. Education wise Armenia has excelled in some spheres but when it comes to psychology, sociology, behavioral sciences.. it has much to learn since it has concentrated education on medicine, physics, chemistry.. and neglected the other fields. All of this is fixable but requires time and stability which are not guaranteed to us.
              Number one, each citizen must start seing their role and responsibility in current and future societies. Otherwise we can go ahead in unending cycles of blaming all to governments ( whichever is at any moment) or outside influences and ending up without change in core values.

              Comment


              • Re: Regional geopolitics

                All this talk about EU or Customs union and nobody in political circles has analyzed about EU austerity programs. About 20% population exited from Greece, Bulgaria, Romania and elsewhere to western europe. How hungry EU and IMF are that they are not even willing to wait for the outcome of Ukraine conflict and are making the austerity part of presidential elections by making it a requirement in releasing money needed so badly in Kiev now.
                World giants and finances moving in and taking over national industries and resources. Loaning money to buy out local resources and then having local population pay the bill.
                About how by spreading fear of Russia they got pro austerity parties win landslide in baltic states(people are choosing to impose tight spending on themselves?).
                What would it do in Armenia if accepted? Imagine the worker emigration programs?
                Some could say that Russia already has such policies and Customs Union will even make it more dominant, but how could we compare emigration to europe with russia?

                I just read a news about french schools calling May 16Th a "lift Your Skirt" day. On that day boys are required to wear skirts, that supposedly should help in overcoming gender inequality.
                What the world has come to?
                I think that they will start "castrating" boys in europe to really make equal genders. That will happen one day, if not physically then in other ways.
                Last edited by Hakob; 05-14-2014, 11:23 PM.

                Comment


                • Re: Regional geopolitics

                  http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/...ics/?tid=sm_fb

                  Which foreign countries spent the most to influence U.S. politics?
                  BY COLBY ITKOWITZ
                  May 14 at 7:00 am
                  (Jeffrey MacMillan/For Washington Post)
                  (Jeffrey MacMillan/For Washington Post)

                  Based on what is publicly reported, foreign governments spent millions in 2013 to develop relationships within the United States with members of Congress, federal agencies and even the media, according to an analysis from the ever-informative Sunlight Foundation.
                  The United Arab Emirates spent a whopping $14.2 million to influence Americans, making contacts, among many others, with columnists and reporters to discuss “illicit finance issues.” Those conversations likely focused on terrorist financing and Iran sanctions, two issues that punctuated a visit Deputy Secretary of Treasury David Cohen made to the UAE early last year.
                  Foreign lobbying disclosures by law are much more specific than domestic ones, requiring nations to say who they contacted, when and why. For example, UAE reached out to The Washington Post’s conservative opinion blogger Jennifer Rubin in December 2013 regarding illicit finance.
                  The law that governs these stricter reporting requirements, the Foreign Agents Registration Act of 1938, was created to keep tabs on Nazi propagandists during World War II. Why reporters? The United States feared Nazi Germany was paying public relations people to spin Hitler’s motives in conversations with American journalists.
                  Sunlight, which just last week unveiled a new data tool called Foreign Influence Explorer, analyzed spending that “foreign entities or their paid representatives reported to the Department of Justice for 2013.” The data collected by Justice does not include “diplomatic contacts by members of a nation’s embassy.”
                  (Source: Sunlight Foundation)
                  (Source: Sunlight Foundation)

                  The governments that spend the most here on hired PR are ones that typically don’t have strong established diplomatic ties, Sunlight’s Bill Allison told the Loop. “It’s like renting a diplomatic core when they hire foreign agents,” he said. But when there is a hot issue with international implications, like the Keystone XL pipeline or a trade treaty, there is often a spike in lobbyists representing a country’s interests, so even nations with already close relationships with the United States like Canada, Mexico and Germany rack up hefty bills.
                  Last year, lobbyists for Canada met with members of Congress for “relationship building.” Mexico’s lobbyists reached out to offices about the “Consular Notification Compliance Act,” legislation to protect rights of foreign national prisoners. And Germany lobbied Congress on overseas military bases, presumably since several U.S. installations there are scheduled to be closed.
                  Other allies like England and France didn’t register on Sunlight’s list. And Israel, which already has huge U.S. political pull through domestic organizations, spent only $1,250. Meanwhile, the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, the well-connected pro-Israel group based in the United States, spent close to $3 million on lobbying last year.
                  Generally, it’s easy to surmise that the countries spending the most on U.S. lobbyists are ones with substantial energy, trade, immigration, agriculture or other notable business dealings in Washington. But it’s not entirely clear why some countries depend on their diplomats here to cultivate relationships while others look for outside help.
                  Top 10 foreign governments paying for influence in 2013
                  1. UAE 14.2 million
                  2. Germany $12 million
                  3. Canada $11.2 million
                  4. Saudi Arabia $11.1 million
                  5. Mexico $6.1 million
                  6. Morocco $4 million
                  7. South Korea $3.9 million
                  8. Republika Srpska (Bosnian Serb Republic) $2.4 million
                  9. Georgia $2.3 million
                  10. Azerbaijan $2.3 million
                  Source: Sunlight Foundation




                  : question >> Why no word for the millions Turkey spends every year into US lobbies !!
                  You can tell whether a man is clever by his answers. You can tell whether a man is wise by his questions.

                  Comment


                  • Re: Regional geopolitics

                    Ո՞վ է պատասխան տալու արյան համար

                    ՀԱՅԿԱԶՆ ՂԱՀՐԻՅԱՆ, Գլխավոր խմբագիր
                    Հինգշաբթի, 15 Մայիսի 2014,



                    Հայաստանի արտաքին գործերի նախարար Էդվարդ Նալբանդյանը Ղարաբաղի հարցով Մինսկի խմբի ամերիկացի համանախագահի հայտարարած սկզբունքների վերաբերյալ հանդես է եկել մեկնաբանությամբ եւ ասել, որ որեւէ նոր բան չկա: Ավելին, նա ասել է, որ Հայաստանը կողմ է այդ սկզբունքներին, եւ դրանք մինչ օրս իրականություն չեն դարձել Ադրբեջանի դիրքորոշման պատճառով:
                    Հիշեցնենք, որ այդ սկզբունքներն ըստ էության նշանակում են Ղարաբաղի մաս-մաս վերադարձը Ադրբեջանի կազմ: Նալբանդյանը փաստացի ասում է, որ Հայաստանը կողմ է դրան, սակայն Ադրբեջանը դեմ է: Այսինքն, ըստ Նալբանդյանի՝ ստացվում է, որ Հայաստանն Ադրբեջանին է պարտական, որ Ղարաբաղը մինչ այժմ չի վերադարձվել Ադրբեջանին:
                    Սակայն վերադառնանք նրա հայտարարությանը: Իսկապե՞ս նոր բան չկա: Գուցե եւ թղթերով նոր բան չկա, ինչպես ասել է Սերժ Սարգսյանը, սակայն նոր է այն իրավիճակը, որում հայտնվել է Հայաստանը, եւ որում ահռելի դեր է խաղացել Էդվարդ Նալբանդյանը: Իսկ այդ նոր իրավիճակն այն է, որ բառացիորեն մի քանի ամսվա ընթացքում Հայաստանը ոչ միայն կորցրեց իր ինքնիշխանությունը եւ վերածվեց Ռուսաստանի վասալի, այլեւ աշխարհքաղաքական ամենաբարենպաստ իրավիճակից հայտնվեց վտանգավոր ու սպառնալից իրավիճակում: Հայաստանը զիջեց իր դիրքերը, այդ թվում Ղարաբաղի խնդրում, որտեղ կորցրել է ձայնի իրավունքը:
                    Ներկայում ակտուալ է դարձել ստատուս-քվոյի փոփոխության հարցը, որը նշանակում է պատերազմ: Այսինքն, Հայաստանի արտաքին քաղաքականության արդյունքում երկիրը հասել է աղետի եզրին՝ կամ զիջել կամավոր, կամ մտնել պատերազմի մեջ: Իսկ այդ պատերազմում Հայաստանը մնալու է առանց դաշնակիցների՝ թե Արեւմուտքը, թե Ռուսաստանը շահագրգռված են լինելու Հայաստանի պարտությամբ, յուրաքանչյուրն՝ իր նկատառումներից ելնելով:
                    Ռուսաստանի պարագան այստեղ առավել որոշիչ է: Դատելով Ռուսաստանի քայլերից, այդ երկիրն ընդհանրապես մտադիր է լուծարել Հայաստանը որպես պետություն: Ասում են, Նալբանդյանը Մոսկվայում նման մի քննարկման արդեն իսկ մասնակցել է, որտեղ խոսք է գնացել համապատասխան քաղաքական-քարոզչական աշխատանքներ տանելու մասին:
                    Այս ամենի համար Նալբանդյանը պատասխանատվություն կրո՞ւմ է արդյոք, իրեն պատասխանատու համարո՞ւմ է ապագա արյան ու ավերների համար: Այս ամենի մեջ նոր բան չկա՞:
                    Եթե Նալբանդյանը հայտարարեր հակառակը, ապա բազմաթիվ հարցեր կառաջանային, ընդհուպ պետական դավաճանության խնդիրը: Եթե նոր բան չկա, ինչու հայկական բանակի պատասխանատուները շտապեցին հայտարարել, որ կռվելու են ամեն մի թիզ հողի համար: Կասկած չկա, որ կռվելու են, հայկական բանակը արտգործնախարարություն չէ, այլ մի կառույց, որի մեջ դեռ մնում է հայրենասիրությունը եւ մարտունակությունը:
                    Բանակը պատրաստ է ջախջախել թշնամուն, եւ դրանում կասկած չի կարող լինել: Միայն թե այդ բանը դժվար է լինելու, չափազանց դժվար, քանի որ ղարաբաղյան առաջին պատերազմի օրինակով, հայերը ստիպված են լինելու կռվել միանգամից երեք ճակատով՝ հակառակորդի, Մոսկվայի եւ Հայաստանում նրա ագենտուրայի դեմ, որը փորձելու է կազմալուծել հայերի դիմադրությունը եւ կրակը դադարեցնելու հրամաններ բերել:
                    Հակառակորդը խնդիր չէ, խոշոր հաշվով խնդիր չէ նաեւ Մոսկվան, ինչպես եղավ Ղարաբաղյան առաջին պատերազմում: Խնդիրն այն է, որ հայկական բանակը պետք է պատրաստ լինի պարտվողական հրամանները չկատարելուն:
                    Ասում են, վերջերս Նալբանդյանին Մոսկվայում միլիոնանոց շքեղ մի տուն է բաժին հասել: Երեւի, առաջադրանքները փայլուն կատարելու համար:
                    - See more at: http://www.lragir.am/index/arm/0/com....6r5JxJFI.dpuf

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                    • Re: Regional geopolitics

                      I don't know....I think Armenians are still shellshoked......as an ancient civilization we have all those abilities but we are not united like the J3ws.

                      Imagine a "Diaspora metrics" which connects/portals from Armenian organizations in different countries (including Russia) to a central control point which is aimed to Artsakh and Armenia and the Armenian people through our churches.
                      Every Armenian matters and must be helped if needed.
                      B0zkurt Hunter

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