Regional geopolitics

[Azad]

Russia did not lose Georgia. The West infiltrated and took it over as a puppet Sorosit (anal disease) state. Russia advanced into strategic locations to keep close in case it needs to squeeze any Georgian balls. Also, the azeri pipelines can fall into conflict zones if needed (South Ossetia). Not to mention making the new azeri gas pipeline useless while they built their own in the Black Sea to turkey. It is all geopolitics games. As far Ukraine every winter they freeze their azzes along with Germany. It sure helped the Ukrainians contracting the Sorosit virus. See how civil and democratic they are now piddling azeri dictator’s bribes.

“Exiled Azerbaijani Reporter Says He’s Being Hunted In Kyiv"
https://www.rferl.org/a/azerbaijan-report-exiled-ukraine-escapes-abduction/29109481.html

[Hakob]

Agree.
In these kind of games, the anglosaxons are much more scinically machiavelic, than primitive asian machos, like the turks, arabs, or even russians....
To beggin with Afghanistan in 1980....

Then look what they achieved in 888...., and yet again in Khrim, then eastern Ukraina.
In immediate impression, Russia was clear winner, and the West was flatly loosing...

Yet it turns out that Russia had at the end of the day gained virtually nothing in Georgia apart the micro districts og Akhalgori and Tamarashen in Ossetia, and the Kodor gorge in Abkhazia....
But lost the main game: Georgia for good.

Same for Khrim and Donbass...
It kept at the end of the day what was anyway russian Khrim, and lost 75% of Eastern Ukraina, that was previously ruusophile... for a bunch of industrial ruins...
Yet it lost the game, that is Ukraina itself, for good...
Plus they ended in a virtual pariah status, "rightfully" under international boycott....

So let the Turks as deep as they can in southern Kurdistan...
For that they need to win easily first.
It will make the end neerer.

Nevertheless, the Kurds remain Kurds... good loothers, opportunists, poor soldiers...
Their gerilla abilities in Western Armenia are seemingly due the kurdified armenian blood some districts are purely made off.

If eventually west gets it so Russia and turkey lock horns, it will gain in double game. Clear turkey of islamists (erdoghans) and put Russia on knees, deep in conflicts in Middle East and Ukraine and economy in ruins.
I only hope that we will not be run over by fighting bulls like before.
And, I have to agree, Russia has lost Ukraine forever.
It’s true that communist’s harsh treatment of Ukrainians has sawn deep seeds of hatred. But also russian tactic of attaching as much territories of Russian ethnic areas to Ukraine as possible, in hopes of diluting and assimilating western Ukrainians has backfired badly. Now large traditional Russian territories have gone with Ukrainia.

[Vrej1915]

Yep...
kurds can kiss erdoghan’s ass.
And I do not worry turks taking part of Syria. That will only enlarge the friction between turkey and Syria/Russia and Iran soon or later.
US probably still thinks that oh well, it’s still a NATO country occupying Syrian soil (what about if it’s intentional?)
But soon or later turkey has to show its NATO worth by opposing Syria/Russia more stronger.
Erdoghan is sneaking incracks of vacuum between NATO and Russia/Iran.
But this is just a prelude in game, because both, Russia vs west and Iran vs west/Israel/SA conflict is getting hotter.
It will be very hard for Turks to not get pounded by any one side if it miscalculates it’s chances.

Agree.
In these kind of games, the anglosaxons are much more scinically machiavelic, than primitive asian machos, like the turks, arabs, or even russians....
To beggin with Afghanistan in 1980....

Then look what they achieved in 888...., and yet again in Khrim, then eastern Ukraina.
In immediate impression, Russia was clear winner, and the West was flatly loosing...

Yet it turns out that Russia had at the end of the day gained virtually nothing in Georgia apart the micro districts og Akhalgori and Tamarashen in Ossetia, and the Kodor gorge in Abkhazia....
But lost the main game: Georgia for good.

Same for Khrim and Donbass...
It kept at the end of the day what was anyway russian Khrim, and lost 75% of Eastern Ukraina, that was previously ruusophile... for a bunch of industrial ruins...
Yet it lost the game, that is Ukraina itself, for good...
Plus they ended in a virtual pariah status, "rightfully" under international boycott....

So let the Turks as deep as they can in southern Kurdistan...
For that they need to win easily first.
It will make the end neerer.

Nevertheless, the Kurds remain Kurds... good loothers, opportunists, poor soldiers...
Their gerilla abilities in Western Armenia are seemingly due the kurdified armenian blood some districts are purely made off.

[Hakob]

Yep...
kurds can kiss erdoghan’s ass.
And I do not worry turks taking part of Syria. That will only enlarge the friction between turkey and Syria/Russia and Iran soon or later.
US probably still thinks that oh well, it’s still a NATO country occupying Syrian soil (what about if it’s intentional?)
But soon or later turkey has to show its NATO worth by opposing Syria/Russia more stronger.
Erdoghan is sneaking incracks of vacuum between NATO and Russia/Iran.
But this is just a prelude in game, because both, Russia vs west and Iran vs west/Israel/SA conflict is getting hotter.
It will be very hard for Turks to not get pounded by any one side if it miscalculates it’s chances.

[Vrej1915]

https://razm.info/123384/dyjqgrxw4aavinc

https://razm.info/123384/dyjretywkae4a57....

[Azad]

The two face turks have played their game correctly with timing.
While all the world powers are arguing on Assad’s regime, they weaseled all sides and got one part of what they wanted.
Russia should find a way to entice turks and shekelists go at each other. That will alienate turks with NATO and keeps the shekelists preoccupied with their conflict, instead of obsessing with Iran and creating conflicts all over the ME. Things do not look too good.

[Hakob]

Now it is abvious that Americans do not have a reliable fighter ally in kurds in the region. This will embolden Syrians, Russia and Iran to challenge US presence there.
The SU 57s there, look like are a Russian preparation to challenge US/Israel.
Kurds will pay very heavy price for not putting up a fight.
Now it is even less likely that US will confront Turks in any way in order to stop their advance towards Manbij.

[Hakob]

Kurdish forces suffer horrific losses in Afrin battle – statistics

By Andrew Illingworth
-
18/03/2018


Rate Article (5 / 1)

BEIRUT, LEBANON (12:05 P.M.) – Kurdish paramilitary forces of the People’s Protection Units (YPG) have endured horrific losses over the course of Turkey’s ‘Olive Branch’ operation in the Afrin region of Syria’s Aleppo province.

The near two-month long offensive by the Turkish Armed Forces and proxy militias under its command saw – for the first time ever – Syrian Kurdish forces dual it out with an opponent with vastly superior firepower resources.

Syrian conflict monitor sources are now reporting that from the point of the initial incursion of Turkish-backed forces into Afrin’s countryside until the capture of the regional capital (the city of Afrin) on Sunday, Kurdish paramilitary ranks suffered around 1,500 fighters killed in action

This statistic is far more believable that Ankara’s claim that around four thousand YPG and Islamic State (a complete lie stated for political purposes only) fighters have been killed.

In any case, 1,500 fighters is a huge number to lose one one just battlefront during less than two months.

Turkish airstrikes and artillery bombardment are widely believed to be the main source of YPG losses since the start of the Afrin operation.

???. Afrin was supposed to be a perfect environment for kurds to bleed Turks heavily.
City fight is where conventional forces suffer the most because defenders can blur and mix battle lines in city, making heavy bombardment without attacker’s losss impossible.
Am I right?
So what went wrong?
In every war in past we see attackers suffering heaviest when taking population areas.
In some historic battles defenders holed up for months, breaking attacker’s morale and manpower.
Kurds... they have been talking big but acting like mice.
All I have seen in this war is kurds lobbing rockets at Turks from far in mountains. If not ATGMs then there is no any battle evidence at all.
I guess kurds have only been good at abducting cristian women and children and robbing and killing unarmed Armenian peasants in their history.
Paper tigers.
I am not convinced now that they will do any harm to Turks by fighting as partisans. Looking how much they have done it turkey, the future is clear. They are not a nation in any world measure.

[Vrej1915]

Quarter million new Syrian refugees. Turks take Afrin city. Al Ghouta about to fall to Assad

debka Mar 18, 2018


The Turkish army and its surrogates took control on Sunday March 18 of the Kurdish Afrin City in northern Syria, as some 200,000 Kurds fled the town of a million inhabitants. It is unclear what happened to the Kurdish YPG militia holding the town against the Turkish invaders and their local surrogate, the “Free Syrian Army. Some say they withdrew and mingled among the constant stream of refugees fleeing north towards areas under Syrian military control; others that the YPG is regrouping for a counter-offensive. But meanwhile, Turkish bulldozers knocked over the statue of a Kurdish hero in Afrin town center and surrounding buildings were arrayed with Turkish flags.
Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan could boast that his army had taken control of Afrin city, although it took nearly two months to complete Operation Olive Branch and achieve its object of expelling the leading Kurdish party and militia from one of its main cantons in northern Syria.
The US and Russia went through the motions of trying to dissuade Erdogan from this path to avert the major humanitarian catastrophe which is now at hand. However, they did not actually lift a finger to stop him. The Turkish president played the game by sending delegations to Washington and Moscow to hear their arguments, but his only object was to chalk up diplomatic mileage and buy time for his army to reach its goal.
The capture of Afrin is proving to be stage one of Erdogan’s campaign of expansion. He used the free hand granted him to recruit 30 Syrian Sunni militias for doing his bidding in northern Syria. Now, he has the brass to claim equal standing in northern Syria with Russia and the United States and demand that the two powers give his wishes due consideration.
With the Turks evidently on the march, DEBKAfile’s military sources disclose that, on Saturday, March 17, US forces based in northern Syria began redeploying to new positions for defending Manbij, another Syrian Kurdish town coveted by the Turkish president. This town is his next target, once the Turkish army winds up its Afrin operation. Marine Corps Lt, Gen. Kenneth McKenzie, Director of the Joint Operations Staff, ordered Marine reinforcements transferred to Manbij and US units based in Iraq to cross the border and head for the Kurdish areas of northern Syria.
In another part of Syria, Bashar Assad, like Erdogan, is looking forward to an imminent victory for his army and allies, after a month of the some of the bloodiest warfare in the civil war. East Ghouta, the last rebel stronghold in the Damascus area, is about to fall. Sunday, a spokesman for the Fallaq al-Rahman, the leading rebel group still holding out in the southern pocket of the enclave, said his group was in negotiations for a ceasefire “to guarantee the safety of civilians.” DEBKAfile: They are in fact negotiating for terms of surrender. The insurgents are in a hopeless situation. Lacking the weapons for fighting off the air, ground missile and artillery barrages aimed at them, they never stood a real chance of winning the day against the merciless bombardment inflicted indiscriminately on the enclave and its inhabitants by the Syrian army, with Russian air force and pro-Iranian Shiite militia backing.
Hundreds of civilians died in the merciless month-long hammering. According to UN estimates, at least 25,000 civilians have fled the enclave in the past week alone – many on foot with their belongings on their backs. Both the Turkish and Syrian presidents remained unmoved throughout by the horrors attending their brutal assaults on the civilian populations of the two enclaves, and the deaths and privations of women, children, the sick and the wounded. And the world stands by as another quarter of a million Syrian civilians flee their homes for unknown destinations. Altogether it is estimated that the Syrian war has resulted in more than 12 million refugees and displaced persons, of whom 5 million fled across the border

[Vrej1915]

Two more Russian topline Su-57 land in Syria to challenge US, Israeli air might

debka Feb 24, 2018

Sukhoi-57, Russia, US, Israel, Syria

Government sources in Moscow reported Saturday, Feb. 24, that four fifth-generation Sukhoi-57 jet fighters are currently deployed in Syria after a second pair landed Friday. The first two arrived on Monday, Feb. 19 at Russia’s Khmeimim air base, along with 4 Su-35 fighters, 4 Su-25 strike aircraft and an A-50U radar command-and-control platform.
DEBKA file reported the first pair’s arrival on Friday, Feb. 23, along with this comment: This top-performance fleet raises Russia’s air strike and defense capabilities in Syria to the highest standards of any air force in the world, with enough power to take on superior US and Israeli air might in the Syrian arena. The Su-57’s weapon bays are designed to carry Russia’s new nuclear tactical X-50 air-launched cruise missile, although it is not known whether the aircraft in Syria are carrying them. DEBKA Weekly’s military sources see President Vladimir Putin’s decision to send the Su-57 fighters to Syria as substantially raising the big power stakes in Syria after the loss of dozens of Russian troops on Feb. 7 to massive US artillery and air strikes that decimated the Russian, Syrian and pro-Iranian forces crossing the Euphrates River. An American radar-invisible F-22 took part in that raid. The Russians have dubbed the Su-57 the “F-22 killer.”
It is also Russia’s response to Israel’s air offensive on Feb. 10, which targeted the shared Russian-Iranian T-4 air base near Palmyra and smashed four Iranian Revolutionary Guards forward command centers in Syria, after downing an Iranian drone. It is also seen in Moscow as a challenge for Israel’s newly acquired fifth-generation US F-35 combat aircraft.
Does Putin intend to order his mighty airborne strike force to go into battle against the US or Israel in the boiling Syrian arena? If he does, he will be launching the first contest between the most sophisticated warplanes ever devised for a test of superior might between the US and Russia and a war escalation unprecedented, even in Syria.
The very presence of the Su-57 across the border has had the instant effect of reducing the Israel air force’s freedom of action over Syria and Lebanon. The landing of the Russian Sukhoi-57 in Syria and its dire implications were first revealed in the latest DEBKA