Elections in Armenia

[KarotheGreat]

Re: Presidential elections 2008 in Armenia

Why robert? I would like to see Armen Ayvazyan as Pres.

Well we know Robert and know what he will do and I think he has done a great job during his presidency. But will the army support Armen, I'm almost certain they will support Robert.

[Armanen]

Re: Presidential elections 2008 in Armenia

Hopefully Serj knows what he is doing and we don't need to get the military involved. After all, we are talking about Armenia, not turkey. :P

[Armenian]

Re: Presidential elections 2008 in Armenia

We must be mature enough to first realize that there is not much Armenia/Armenians can do in the event of a political decision that goes against some of Armenia's national interests.

Like I said earlier, it seems that the "occupied" regions outside of Artsakh proper will be returned for peace with Baku. Although Russians are indirectly proposing/encouraging this idea currently, Armenians politicians, including Robert Kocharyan and Serzh Sargsyan, have also been saying this since the mid-1990s. I have a strong feeling that the strategic territory west of Artsakh, area between Berdzor and Karvajar, will most probably become a demilitarized zone patrolled by Russians. Had Armenia been a major power it would not have been forced into concessions with Azerbaijan. But let's face reality, Armenia is not a major geopolitical power. As a matter of fact, far from being a major geopolitical power Armenian society today, both in the diaspora and the homeland, is deeply divided. The population in Armenia is tired of the pressure cooker they have been enduring since their independence in 1991.

As Levon's movement shamefully revealed, if we leave the Artsakh issue (as well as our Hai Dat) to the general population in Armenia they would attempt to solve it at 'any' cost, even to the detriment of Armenia itself. Thankfully Sargsyan's government will not do so, in my opinion. However, there is only so much the current authorities can do... In my opinion, two recent events drastically changed the nature/character of politics in Armenia. First, Levon's bloody uprising early this year vividly revealed to all interested parties that Armenians are deeply divided long social and political lines and very tired of the unresolved Artsakh issue and will go to any lengths to resolve it. Second, Georgia's defeat at the hands of Russia heralded a new era in the region, an era when Moscow again calls all the shots and everyone has to fall in line. So, while there are a handful of Armenians that are opposing any deal that would envision returning lands in and around Artsakh to Baku, Moscow (as well as Baku, Ankara and Yerevan) realizes that the Armenians population as a whole is more than ready for concessions at this time. How would have Moscow handled this situation had it known that the Armenian nation as a whole stood against the return of any lands to Azerbaijan? I don't know. But such is not the case with us Armenians, so it does not matter in final analysis... I think we Armenians need to better understand the nature and character of what we Armenians are as a nation.

Nonetheless, in my opinion, the current political push in the region is being attempted to stabilize the Caucasus and bring it under Moscow's direct orbit so that it can implement long term economic projects for the region. The partition of the lands in question have already been made (last August's successful military operation in Martakerd might have been related); Russia's role in the region has already been determined; economic projects are already being worked on... The authorities in Yerevan and Baku have been notified. Thus, the "package" is more-or-less ready. Now they simply have to sell it to the populations of Azerbaijan and Armenia.

It's in Armenia's vital interest to go along with the peace process currently being initiated by Moscow. Besides, realistically speaking, Yerevan has no other choice. We can take solace in that the Armenian Republic is not threatened, Artsakh proper is not threatened. If and when the Artsakh issue is resolved; if and when Baku finally accepts the full independence of Artsakh; if and when Russian forces are stationed around Artsakh - I believe peace, stability and economic progress will finally be achieved for Armenia. The bottom line here should be: If we want Armenia to one day become powerful nation and expand into its historic territories be it Western Armenia, Nakhijevan or Javakhq, Armenia must first achieve political stability and economic prosperity. A tiny, barren nation of impoverished people in a constant state of war cannot realize grand geopolitical goals. We cannot afford to have Armenia continue its stagnation and political mediocrity. Issues regarding Artsakh has to get resolved, regional economic infrastructure, energy pipelines, railroads, etc., must resume full operation. I firmly believe that we will pull through this fine.

[crusader1492]

Re: Presidential elections 2008 in Armenia

We must be mature enough to first realize that there is not much Armenia/Armenians can do in the event of a political decision that goes against some of Armenia's national interests.

... I firmly believe that with the help of Moscow we will pull through this fine.

Armenian,

I respect you take on this issue. However, I am not as optomistic as you are in your assessment that the current 'agreements' which you have deliniated, will lead to stability.
In my opinion, any agreement short of Baku recognizing Artsakh's independence along with ceding land connecting Artsakh to Armenia, will lead to another war, in short order.

Here's what I believe: Sooner or later the Russians will pull out of the "demiliterized zone" which will be repopulated by Azeris. At that time, the genocidal nature of the Azeri people will envelop Artsakh...We cannot allow Artsakh to be that vulnerable (again).

Also, I am not as convinced as you are concerning the disunity of the Armenian populace on this grave matter. History shows that in order to sustain a political movement only a 1/3 of the populace needs to have resolve (Armenia surly has that many patriots). Moreover, Artsakhis themselves will not stand for foolish agreements that would make them extremely vulnerable.

...what I'm trying to say with all of this is that this agreement will never come to fruition because our enemy is too greedy and too bloodthirsty to work for peace.

For better, or for worse, Armenians will (again) be forced to fight for their security...not even Russia can stop this inevitability.

[Armenian]

Re: Presidential elections 2008 in Armenia

In my opinion, any agreement short of Baku recognizing Artsakh's independence along with ceding land connecting Artsakh to Armenia, will lead to another war, in short order.

I firmly believe that a land route will be secured between the two regions, and Baku will be made to recognize Artsakh's independence. Otherwise, I agree with you, there will eventually be another war.

Here's what I believe: Sooner or later the Russians will pull out of the "demiliterized zone" which will be repopulated by Azeris. At that time, the genocidal nature of the Azeri people will envelop Artsakh...We cannot allow Artsakh to be that vulnerable (again).

Historically, Russians don't pull out of anywhere unless they are forced out, especially from a strategic region like the Caucasus. Russia has no reason to allow Azeris to overwhelm Armenians again by allowing Azeris to repopulate the territories in question, nor will Armenians of Artsakh allow it. The fact remains, we need a strong Russian presence in the region.

Also, I am not as convinced as you are concerning the disunity of the Armenian populace on this grave matter.

I hope you are right and I am wrong. I am simply basing my opinions on what I see and hear. What I see and hear in Armenia (in Yerevan specifically) is a lot of defeatist talk. I see and hear a lot of hostility towards Armenians from Artsakh. I see and hear a lot of talk regarding unconditional relations with Turkey... In final analysis, Armenians like you and I are a small minority be it in the diaspora or in the homeland.

Only my opinion.

...what I'm trying to say with all of this is that this agreement will never come to fruition because our enemy is too greedy and too bloodthirsty to work for peace.

As a matter of fact that won't be a bad thing because it will pit Baku against Moscow. Trust me, a nationalist government in Moscow, as the current one, will not sell Armenia to the region's Turks. If Azeris wont voluntarily conform they will be forced to conform. All the rhetoric we have been hearing from Baku, Yerevan, Ankara and Moscow are political posturing in preparation to the final episode. In return for Armenia pulling back from the occupied territories around Artsakh Moscow is going to expect Baku to recognize Artsakh's independence. If this occurs, this will still be a great historic victory for Armenia. So, I hope Baku takes a hard stance because doing so they may ruin the current peace process and/or ruin their relations with Moscow.

For better, or for worse, Armenians will (again) be forced to fight for their security...not even Russia can stop this inevitability

If a comprehensive peace treaty is achieved the chances of a future conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan is nil. If the current situation is made to linger there will definitely be a major war...

[yerazhishda]

Re: Presidential elections 2008 in Armenia

Armenian,

I respect you take on this issue. However, I am not as optomistic as you are in your assessment that the current 'agreements' which you have deliniated, will lead to stability.
In my opinion, any agreement short of Baku recognizing Artsakh's independence along with ceding land connecting Artsakh to Armenia, will lead to another war, in short order.

I agree with crusader.

Unless forced by foreign powers and other auspicies at work, Armenia must not make concessions to the Azerbaboons. Not only will this show weakness, but it will mark the beginning of the end for Armenian Artsakh and - God forbid - Syunik. The Azerbaboons would love to have Armenia and the world recognize only the "official borders" of Artsakh that disconnects it from the Republic; this makes it more vulnerable to attack.

Armenia should accept nothing less than recognition of an Artsakh connected to Armenia proper.

[jgk3]

Re: Presidential elections 2008 in Armenia

I agree with the idea that a demilitarized zone that connects Artsakh and Armenia + recognition of Artsakh by Baku is adequate to start a well founded peace in the region.

[KarotheGreat]

Re: Presidential elections 2008 in Armenia

Guess who doesn't agree with the independence of Artsakh

ILHAM ALIYEV: "KARABAKH WILL NEVER BE INDEPENDENT"

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliev reiterated that his country will never come to terms with the loss of Nagorno-Karabakh but stopped short of threatening to win back the region by force as he was sworn in for a second term in office on Friday, Azatutyun reported. "Karabakh will never be independent," news agencies quoted him as saying during his inauguration ceremony in Baku. "Azerbaijan will never recognize it. Neither in five, nor in ten, twenty years. Never."

"We are still interested in the continuation of negotiations and our hopes have not faded yet," said Aliev. "We still believe that the negotiations may lead to a just settlement". "The opposite side must come to terms with reality. And the reality is that today it is difficult and, I would say, impossible to compete with Azerbaijan", he added.

[crusader1492]

Re: Presidential elections 2008 in Armenia

Guess who doesn't agree with the independence of Artsakh

This is what I'm talking about...How is Aliev's rhetoric contributing to "setting the stage" toward recognition of Artsakh's independence and efforts toward peace?

It's the same story: Yerevan is willing to compromise and Baku is willing to make war.

...Russia has its work cut out for it.

[Armenian]

Re: Presidential elections 2008 in Armenia

It's the same story: Yerevan is willing to compromise and Baku is willing to make war...Russia has its work cut out for it.

It's political posturing on the part of Baku in my opinion. Baku may be trying to get 'most' out of the deal by trying to scare Yerevan into more concessions, or is simply sounding tough for domestic consumption... Yerevan is doing what it has to do, appear conciliatory. In the final tally, however, whatever occurs on the ground must be blessed by Moscow. Thus far and despite Baku's harsh rhetoric, war to liberate the territories in question is out of the question. It's obvious that a major war shall be not tolerated by Moscow or the West. Baku will loose more than it will gain by starting a fresh round of hostilities. I have no doubt Baku knows this, which leads me to believe that their warlike rhetoric is only for public consumption... I still believe that a deal has been made by all parties involved. It's now a matter of selling it to public.