Is Russia an ally or foe, nowadays?

[Haykakan]

Re: Is Russia an ally or foe, nowadays?

The American Conservative Touched Upon Armenian-Russian Relations

From: Mihran Keheyian <[email protected]>
Date: Thu, 8 Aug 2013 06:57:32 +0000 (UTC)
THE AMERICAN CONSERVATIVE TOUCHED UPON ARMENIAN-RUSSIAN RELATIONS

http://armenpress.am/eng/print/728484/the-american-conservative-touched-upon-armenian-russian-relations.html

14:06, 7 August, 2013

YEREVAN, AUGUST 7, ARMENPRESS: The American Conservative Periodical
published an article of the Professor of International Relations
and Human Sciences Walter Russell Mead about the Armenian-Russian
relations in the context of the EU Association.

"Walter Russell Mead wonders if Armenia will alter its security
relationship with Russia. This festering tension has important
geopolitical implications not just for Armenia and Russia but also
for Iran. Tehran has been making overtures toward Yerevan recently,
offering to expand economic and security ties. But if Armenia chooses
to turn instead toward the EU and the West, and away from Iran and
Russia, Iran might find itself more isolated than it already is", -
says the article, as reported by Armenpress.

"This isn't going to happen, but it's still worth considering why it
won't. First, the Armenian government has no desire to rupture its
relationship with Moscow, and Armenia needs Russia as a patron far
more than Russia needs Armenia. Supposing that the Armenian government
wanted to end its post-Cold War security relationship with Russia, how
would it "turn" to the West? One of many reasons that Armenia remained
in Russia's orbit for the last two decades is that the U.S. mostly
ignored Armenia and aligned itself with Armenia's Turkish and Azeri
neighbors after the Karabakh war. Russia and Iran have maintained
good relations with Armenia for decades, and have prevented the
country from being economically isolated, so what incentive would
Armenia have to downgrade those relationships and seek closer ties
with states that pay much more attention to Turkey and Azerbaijan?

Even if Armenia successfully joins the EU, which will presumably be
a very long process in any case, it certainly isn't going to become
part of NATO. Armenia wouldn't be able to join the alliance while the
dispute over Karabakh remains unresolved, and there's no evidence that
Armenians in or out of government want to do this. Joshua Kucera summed
things up last year in a report on Armenia's relations with NATO and
Russia: "It's just understood that Armenia's ties with Russia are
so strong that a few U.S./NATO cooperation programs here and there
aren't going to make any difference".

As angry as the Armenian public may be at the moment, most Armenians
want to maintain good relations with Russia, a majority favors joining
Russia's customs union, and as of 2011 75% of Armenians approved of
the performance of Russia's leadership. This is not a country that
Russia is likely to "lose" anytime in the near future", - says the
article, published in The American Conservative Periodical.

[Eddo211]

Re: Is Russia an ally or foe, nowadays?

Did it ever occur to anyone that the reason Russia gaurds our western border is that if it was just Armenia gaurding it the Turk would have invaded a long time ago? I just do not understand the reasoning behind people like this, whoknow full well that Armenia is not capable of standing up to Turky yet they insist that the only power who is capable must leave. Did you guys ever think "and then what?". I am serious now so the russian gaurds leave and then what? What do you think is going to happen next?

It might be possible to replace Russian border guards with Armenians and still maintain Russian base in Armenia.....with the help of more UAVs and larger airforce Armenia could potentially patrol its own borders and still keep Turkey at bay with Russia and CSTO.

[gegev]

Re: Is Russia an ally or foe, nowadays?

And I don't understand your lack of reasoning.

Surely it can't be that you love being Russia's dog (and not even some pampered, indoor, pedigree dog, but just a mongel dog that Russia came across on its youthful travels and is now kept tied up in the back yard, mostly fogotten, fed on scraps, casual contempt, and the occasional beating).

I have to question the sanity of a person, or a nation, that thinks its neighbour is, at any moment, for no political or military reason whatsoever, going to invade it because they just so love doing that invading thing. And that the only thing that can prevent this happening is some other, more distant, neighbour - one that will do it just out of the goodness of its heart and because its population believes in a similar sort of invisible pink unicorn.

If Russia wants (for prestige, or strategic reasons, or even friendship) to maintain a military presence in Armenia, then it has to start behaving like a respectful guest, and not the actual owner. Russian troops are not there because Armenia wants them to be there, they are there because Russia wants them to be there - so Armenia does not need to be so subservient to Russia. There should be no Russian troops in the watchtowers of Armenia's border. To have foreign troops so visibly guarding your border is a sign of extreme weakness politically. For decades troops of many countries were stationed in West Germany, but even then it was still only West Germans who guarded West Germany's borders.

The symptoms of reasoning disorder are evident for years, it’s incurable in this case. The slave/employee mentality disorder, in reasoning, could be infectious for the weak young, but it doesn’t harm the healthy adult.

Arguing with him can’t cure it, but rather may cause further inflammation. And arguing affects national self-esteem of the opponent, who enters into polemics with him. He doesn’t act as “Haykakan” but rather as an “Otarakan”; enemy.

Therefore my policy is; ignoring his self-humiliating posts will give much better results.

[Hakob]

Re: Is Russia an ally or foe, nowadays?

[QUOTE=bell-the-cat;344071]And I don't understand your lack of reasoning.
[I have to question the sanity of a person, or a nation, that thinks its neighbour is, at any moment, for no political or military reason whatsoever, going to invade it because they just so love doing that invading thing. And that the only thing that can prevent this happening is some other, more distant, neighbour - one that will do it just out of the goodness of its heart and because its population believes in a similar sort of invisible pink unicorn.]


That neighbour has commited genocide and wiped out 1/2 of armenians, accupied and wiped out any trace of memory on 7/8 th of historic Armenia.
It's like xxxs living next to well prosperous and ideologically strong nazy germany that still idolizes Hitler and wants to unite with other germans accross xxxish state along with part of land just liberated by xxxs.
Is this enough?
The first thing west should do is to make "peacefull" turkey to end the blockade they are maintaining now. Then I will believe in "invisible pink unicorn".
A mistake that Armenia made in 1919/20 by not accepting bolsheviks power (while Georgia and azerbaijan were quick to realize and welcome red army in the midst of 3 country wars) cost us the vilayetts of Kars and Ardahan because turkey quickly realized that russia needs and is willing to keep only a small foothold in Armenia, because of it's weekness. Even turkey played communist for a couple of years just to get what they wanted from russia. You see, I don't think that russia's policies have been allways smart or coherent.
There is a possibility that russia can help azerbaijan in gaining karabakh in order to keep it's influence and position on baku and newly rebeeliousArmenia, having made a decision that just a small Armenia for it's bases is good enough (without karabakh problems to anger baku of course, just having helped baku resize Armenia to a safe and unrebelious, easier to controll quantity). Then what is Armenia going to do? We will fight of course. But if loosing Artsakh, whose dog is Armenia going to be?
I cannot anderstand some people who dramatise with big words like slave mentality, freedom, democracy etc... Don't forget that in caucasus is all dog eat dog, for past 1000 years.
We, Armenians, have been subjected to massacres regularly, starting by arabs, mongols and crusaders on our land in history, and every time we lost territory and population never to gain back. I wonder, what will be left to put word "Armenia" after next round (on which, I guarantee that europe and russia too will close eyes).
I will keep an eye for any ideas besides bravado and empty words to give all I can to help my country. With russia or without, I don't care.
Who would not like to be free and independent? No need to preach to qoire, We have given many many times more then others for freedom in history. But I cannot forget neither history nor reality now. Big words, Big Ideas.... Just need one thing... End the blockade. It is not an act of nature. Nobody can convince me that it is the act of russia. It is the act of our immediate and "peacefull" neighbours.

[londontsi]

Re: Is Russia an ally or foe, nowadays?

It might be possible to replace Russian border guards with Armenians and still maintain Russian base in Armenia.....with the help of more UAVs and larger airforce Armenia could potentially patrol its own borders and still keep Turkey at bay with Russia and CSTO.

I agree. It would be far more normal/typical ( and dignified) defence structure.
It would also shut up the critics both from within and outside the country.

One thing that could be of concern is this.

The present structure was put in place when the threat of Turkish invasion/attack was imminent.
Engaging Russian forces on the border would have triggered the third world war.

Replacing Russian forces with Armenian forces, wouldn’t it tempt Turkey to “play games” on the border.
Almost similar to the border with Azerbaijan putting our forces on constant edge.
As long as Russian personnel are not involved, Turkey may regard it as fair game.

.

[lampron]

Re: Is Russia an ally or foe, nowadays?

Russia believes its intervention in the Caucasus 200 years ago enabled Armenia (and Georgia) to establish themselves as nation-states

Before Russia entered Armenians were a minority in the present territory of Armenia

One reason Armenia depends on Russia is because it is land-locked. It is land-locked and small because Armenians have not struggled in history (I have written about this under the "Ottomans" thread)

There are many Armenians inside and outside Armenia who want Russia's military protection

The reason they rely on an outside power (it could be any power) is because they have no faith in themselves

Also, many other Armenians in key positions in Armenia as well as party leaders, 'intellectuals', church leaders and priests abroad want the comfortable life. They want to enjoy their shish kebabs and want someone else to worry about Armenia's security

In summary. Armenia is not another west Germany. It can't even be compared. Armenia does depend on Russia. Turkish warplanes tried to enter Armenian airspace in 1993. Turkey invaded Cyprus and remains there. Russia doesn't treat Armenians any worse than it treats Gerogians or Azerbaijanis or Daghestanis or Kirghiz and so on

[londontsi]

Re: Is Russia an ally or foe, nowadays?

Before Russia entered Armenians were a minority in the present territory of Armenia

Irrelevant statement.
The English (British) are a minority in London. Nobody sensible would say London is not part of (or belongs to ) the UK

One reason Armenia depends on Russia is because it is land-locked. It is land-locked and small .....
(I have written about this under the "Ottomans" thread)....

And I have written about this. It is irrelevant. It is not causational.

Look at Gaze they are not landlocked, Giligia (Cilicia ) was not land locked when it collapsed.
The problem was stronger enemy determined to eliminate it not just conquest.
also Discord within the country so they could not focus on the enemy and providing the enemy perfect timing. etc etc.

Look at the countries who are landlocked and somehow nobody is trying to eliminated them.

http://uk.ask.com/wiki/Landlocked_country#List_of_landlocked_countries

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Landlocked_nations.svg

.
There are many Armenians inside and outside Armenia who want Russia's military protection

Lets get one point cleared up, perhaps by you answering this point.

Does the UK have an alliance with the USA to protect the USA when it is invaded? ... or
The UK was helped at its moment of need and therefore a permanent arrangement was deemed prudent for the UK.

..... because Armenians have not struggled in history

The reason they rely on an outside power (it could be any power) is because they have no faith in themselves

Sorry to say but you seem oblivious of Armenian History.

As a result your conclusions are incorrect and provocative, although I do not consider malicious for the reason I mentioned above.


Armenia had its proud moments in history.

http://www.armeniapedia.org/wiki/Armenian_History_Timeline

As an ancient nation it has fought and eventually succumbed its nationhood to be reborn on its historic land all be it in a small section of it.

It had to fight and resist perpetually, the empires of the time .
Was partitioned a number of times between the empires of the time.

Empires that Armenia had to endure.
Persians
Romans
Byzantines
Arabs
Seljuk
Mamluk Turks
Ottomans
Russian Empire
Soviets.

During its struggles to survive it was also had to endure the spiritual front.
Religious power wanted to dominate our church and betrayed us when we did not “totally” conform having left divisions within our nation.
We were a dispensable play piece on the play board of “Christian” great powers
The list goes on.

Followed by perhaps the darkest days, genocide, Kars Treaty and the rest.

And you are saying ... "Reread your statement"

Also, many other Armenians in key positions in Armenia as well as party leaders, 'intellectuals', church leaders and priests abroad want the comfortable life. They want to enjoy their shish kebabs and want someone else to worry about Armenia's security

Intellectuals do not fight. Soldiers fight, the people become fighters and of course many intellectuals fought in Artsakh.


.

[Haykakan]

Re: Is Russia an ally or foe, nowadays?

Like i said name calling and nothing more comes from those who wish Russia to leave. No answers to our security needs and the lack of such answers seems to not even bother people. The turck has not dared invade Armenia all these years just for one reason and one reason only and that is the presence of Russian border guards on Armenia's border. Now these people want the guards gone and replaced by Armenian soldiers. You want to see what happens when Russian border guards leave then feast your eyes on Syria and ask yourself if Russian guards were there would Syria be in the xxxxhole that it is in? Stop eating the western fruitcake and wearing the dam rosy glasses people and look at reality. The west has screwed Syria, Libya, Iraq, Afganistan, Georgia..please do not make Armenia next because of your delusional fantasies.

[londontsi]

Re: Is Russia an ally or foe, nowadays?

Like i said name calling and nothing more comes from those who wish Russia to leave. No answers to our security needs and the lack of such answers seems to not even bother people. The turck has not dared invade Armenia all these years just for one reason and one reason only and that is the presence of Russian border guards on Armenia's border. Now these people want the guards gone and replaced by Armenian soldiers. You want to see what happens when Russian border guards leave then feast your eyes on Syria and ask yourself if Russian guards were there would Syria be in the xxxxhole that it is in? Stop eating the western fruitcake and wearing the dam rosy glasses people and look at reality. The west has screwed Syria, Libya, Iraq, Afganistan, Georgia..please do not make Armenia next because of your delusional fantasies.

Can you refer to any posting which argued that the Russians should leave or the Russian bases should close?

[hrai]

Re: Is Russia an ally or foe, nowadays?

And I don't understand your lack of reasoning.

Surely it can't be that you love being Russia's dog (and not even some pampered, indoor, pedigree dog, but just a mongel dog that Russia came across on its youthful travels and is now kept tied up in the back yard, mostly fogotten, fed on scraps, casual contempt, and the occasional beating).

Better Russia's dog than turcey's victim,(AGAIN!)

I have to question the sanity of a person, or a nation, that thinks its neighbour is, at any moment, for no political or military reason whatsoever, going to invade it because they just so love doing that invading thing.

azerbaboon is such a stable and peace-loving neighbour isn't it? turcs would have to intervene to stop another ass kicking.

And that the only thing that can prevent this happening is some other, more distant, neighbour - one that will do it just out of the goodness of its heart and because its population believes in a similar sort of invisible pink unicorn.

If Russia wants (for prestige, or strategic reasons, or even friendship) to maintain a military presence in Armenia, then it has to start behaving like a respectful guest, and not the actual owner. Russian troops are not there because Armenia wants them to be there, they are there because Russia wants them to be there - so Armenia does not need to be so subservient to Russia. There should be no Russian troops in the watchtowers of Armenia's border. To have foreign troops so visibly guarding your border is a sign of extreme weakness politically. For decades troops of many countries were stationed in West Germany, but even then it was still only West Germans who guarded West Germany's borders.

Yes but it was Soviet troops in East German uniform on the other side of that particular fence. The weakness, you claim to be shown by having Russian border tropps, is not necessarily political but simply a matter of manpower and resources.

There is no doubt in my mind that if Russia withdrew it's forces, Armenia pursued a begging bowl at the feeding trough of the financially and morally bankrupt IVth Reich, sorry EU, that Armenia would find itself in mortal peril.
Not every Armenian looks west, if not for the Soviet Union I doubt many forum members nor their families would be here.