You should hope that Turkey does recognize the Genocide and enters the 21st century finally. If it doesn't, then it won't enter the EU, and if it doesn't enter the EU, then it surely will be in a pickle. That other card you're talking about is just about worthless. It will bring Turkey nothing but painful days ahead, because neither Russia, Iran, or China will ever allow Turkey to achieve this Panturkic dream.
My guess is that Turkey will not recognize the genocide claims which will have nothing to do wit admission into EU. Now I know that EU has mentioned smt about opening border and so on. But, Armenia is not a major aspect in EU's middle-east policy. And let's admit it, the only reason Turkey is even being
negotiated is that EU fears that without Turkey it wont be able to form new energy,defence and intelligence policies.EU will talk about he genocide claims, will say that it is a must for Turkey to recognize it, but at the end it will drop the issue. Since it is a show that EU puts on stage to tell the world that it is so democratic and humane if you buy it. There are many dimensions that Turkey and EU must evaluate when forming an alliance, Armenian issue will prove minor. But it is granted, conferences will be held, some parliaments will cry out. Still where benefits lie so does the states....
As to your analysis about Pan-Turkic strategy. It is a last resort as I mentioned and without a doubt it is a very dangerous attempt which must be calculated very well. But the momentum of the world is changing towards, block economy, block defense which are consisted of same states which unite on same benefits, aims, culture. Those who are alone will be lost, only a fool misses that. If it was worthless we would not be talking about it now. Even at this moment Turkey is giving educational, military, financial support to Turkic Republics. As to Russia and China standing against us, who knows perhaps we will choose to stand with them. After all the unification we are talking about are about current Republics..
But yet again it is a far away possibility...
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