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Re: Is Russia an ally or foe, nowadays?
Interests of Anglo-Saxons, Azerbaijanis and Russians Are Aligned
Igor Muradyan
Comments - Saturday, 03 August 2013,
- See more at: http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/com....4UdN17N4.dpuf
Analytical institutes and centers of the UK have had an important role in the formation of the political thought in Armenia, understanding of many political priorities and global projects. Chatham House – Royal Institute of International Affairs, IISS, Foreign Policy Centre, Centre for European Reform, RUSI, Control Rick, SOIK, experts of the Universities of Oxford, Cambridge, Edinburg and Manchester, London School of Economics and Political Science have gladly provided advice on different issues to Armenian political scientists and analysts.
Currently, the analytical thought in the UK is undergoing a crisis and the community of British political scientists and analysts is to some extent at a loss, first of all due to financial reasons. Some experts and entire units have agreed with their supervisors to seek for funds on the side. In addition, more or less accessible sources are the oil exporting countries, including Azerbaijan.
If one follows the activities of British experts engaged by Azerbaijan and Turkey more or less attentively, one can draw substantial conclusions on the goals and objectives of the Turkish-Azerbaijani lobby.
James Nixey, head of Russia and Eurasia program at Chatham House, not only represents the interests of Azerbaijan but has also been able to oblige the management of Chatham House to “delegate” to him the entire activity of the institute that may touch upon the interests of Turkey and Azerbaijan. One of these tasks is control over interaction of experts of the Institute on the topics of Turkey, Azerbaijan, Armenia.
Ten years ago it would be absolutely unacceptable for the UK where a certain style and rules of conduct in academic and political circles. In 2009 James Nixey tried zealously to counteract spread of positive assessments on possible normalization of the Turkish-Armenian relations. At this moment a high-ranking official of the Turkish embassy to London swore that Turkey has no relation to James Nixey's ardor, and apparently it is their “brothers” Azerbaijanis’ doing.
Now James Nixey has spoken about the expected initialing of the agreement between the EU and Armenia, expressing doubt about its probability. Let it be but James Nixey refers to pressure and force by Russia as the main argument against signing the agreement. Below are citations from the Azerbaijani mass media.
"Russia is not well-known for playing the cards that it holds tremendously well. It could -- were it to have a more enlightened attitude toward the other former Soviet states -- as we know in so many other cases, it could be so much more attractive than it is. But it tends to slide roughshod over them," Nixey explains. "It tends to not pay them due respect, the kind of respect that Russia itself feels it deserves from Western countries, for example."
He believes Yerevan has not yet made a final decision on the choice between deeper relations with the EU or joining Russia's customs union. He notes that the EU agreements entail commitments to political and economic reforms that the government might yet prove unwilling to make. The Eurasian Customs Union, by contrast, comes with no strings attached and, very likely, considerable short-term economic benefits.
At the same time, public support in Armenia for EU integration appears to be growing as tangible results emerge on the horizon. And the very atypical wave of public anger toward Russia over the increase in gas prices, the Harutiunian case, and the sale of arms to Azerbaijan could signal a significant shift in the public mood. One that, Nixey says, President Serzh Sarkisian needs to take into account.
"These sort of semi-authoritarian states take the temperature of public opinion very seriously and they wouldn't want to move too far beyond it," the analyst says. "And taking too much stick, taking too much punishment from Russia, too much humiliation, I think, would be very unwise for Mr. Sarkisian, politically speaking."
Hence, the goal is to prevent the European integration of Armenia. The UK embassy to Armenia should make inquiries into the arguments of the member of a leading analytical center of their country.
It should be noted that Regnum Information and Analytical Service which has a leading role in the Russian system of propaganda in the regional, including the South Caucasian direction did not fail to highlight James Nixey’s speech. In other words, the interests of Russia, Azerbaijan and the Turkish-Azerbaijani lobby are aligned. Apparently, this is not the first time.
Earlier Regnum published an article according to which Amanda Paul, a visible expert on Turkey and Eastern Europe of the Brussels-based European Political Center questions the possibility of initialing of the agreement in November. It is not a secret that Amanda Paul has close relations with political and analytical circles in Turkey and positions on Turkish interests are understood, of course. However, following the publication in Lragir.am, I received the following letter from Amanda Paul:
Dear Professor Muradyan,
I hope that this message finds you well? I just came across the following link, which is a commentary by you referring to a piece (which by the way I have not yet seen) which I give focus to Armenia’s Association Agreement with the EU and Russia’s relations. http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/30434
First of all I am very disappointed by the words you use to described me – particularly labeling me as part of the “Turkish lobby” or “Turkish agent”. This a false statement, one only as to look at the articles I have written related to Turkey – including in the context of Turkey-Armenia rapprochement – to understand this. I am more so disappointed because I have enjoyed our discussion in Brussels during your last visit and the previous one before that.
As regards Russia, it has been widely acknowledged, including in EU circles and in the media, that Russia is pressing Armenia not to sign Association Agreement/DCFTA with the EU. I did not make up this information. And as I have said many times, I dearly hope Armenia will proceed to signature as it will be highly beneficial for the country.
Please, if you have a copy of the article that you refer to in your comments, I would very much appreciate to receive it so I can read it.
With many thanks in advance
Best regards
Amanda
Amanda Paul
Policy Analyst & Programme Executive
EU’s Eastern Neighbourhood, Russia, Turkey and Eurasia Region
European Policy Centre (EPC)
Residence Palace
Rue de la Loi 155
1040 Brussels
Tel : 32 2 231 03 40
Fax : 32 2 230 74 72
Mobile : 32 499 31 6868
The experts must be aware of their big responsibility for their pronouncements. However, not only the European engagement rushed to question the perspectives of integration of Armenia with the Western community. Ariel Cohen, Senior Research Fellow for Russian and Eurasian Studies and International Energy, told the Azerbaijani information agency Vesti.az the historical friendship and strategic partnership between Russia and Armenia have not vanished and most probably will not, and the high-ranking Armenian diplomats will probably be able to ensure balance between Europe and Russia,
Cohen says Russia needs to display that it protects its clients evidence to which is, according to him, the agreement on the Russian troops in Gyumri, close cooperation between Yerevan and Moscow and certainly conversations on Armenia’s likelihood to join the Eurasian Union.
Cohen notes that Yerevan also wants to balance and is committed to integration with Europe. But it does not mean that it has abandoned Moscow, he says, adding that the Armenian diplomats are professionals, and they may succeed, provided the huge Diaspora in Russia and Europe.
In addition, Ariel Cohen underlined that historical military ties between Armenia and Russia, its distrust in Turkey, hostility with Azerbaijan make it stay in its strategic union with Russia. Besides, it gives Russia access to the Turkish and Iranian borders.
The American researcher thinks that Russia has a crisp and clear stance on the region. Russia does not want a lasting peace in the Caucasus because in this way the military and political role of Russia in the Caucasian region will diminish. Therefore, Russia needs tension among the states of the South Caucasus. Ariel Cohen thinks that some Moscow-based forces describe lack of tension in the South Caucasus as a minus, Panorama.am reports.
Hence, the main argument is – hard though the West may try to absorb Armenia, it will not be able to retrieve it from Russian influence, so expectations are not optimistic. Russia is interested in high tension in the South Caucasus, while the West will face lots of problems in the “Armenian project”. The West is scared with Russia. In addition, the heads of the Armenian community in the UK support James Nixey, most probably, out of stupidity.
Apparently, the powerful Anglo-Saxon analytical forces have come to rescue Armenian political scientists but engagement is cheapie that nobody cares for.
- See more at: http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/com....4UdN17N4.dpuf
Interests of Anglo-Saxons, Azerbaijanis and Russians Are Aligned
Igor Muradyan
Comments - Saturday, 03 August 2013,
- See more at: http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/com....4UdN17N4.dpuf
Analytical institutes and centers of the UK have had an important role in the formation of the political thought in Armenia, understanding of many political priorities and global projects. Chatham House – Royal Institute of International Affairs, IISS, Foreign Policy Centre, Centre for European Reform, RUSI, Control Rick, SOIK, experts of the Universities of Oxford, Cambridge, Edinburg and Manchester, London School of Economics and Political Science have gladly provided advice on different issues to Armenian political scientists and analysts.
Currently, the analytical thought in the UK is undergoing a crisis and the community of British political scientists and analysts is to some extent at a loss, first of all due to financial reasons. Some experts and entire units have agreed with their supervisors to seek for funds on the side. In addition, more or less accessible sources are the oil exporting countries, including Azerbaijan.
If one follows the activities of British experts engaged by Azerbaijan and Turkey more or less attentively, one can draw substantial conclusions on the goals and objectives of the Turkish-Azerbaijani lobby.
James Nixey, head of Russia and Eurasia program at Chatham House, not only represents the interests of Azerbaijan but has also been able to oblige the management of Chatham House to “delegate” to him the entire activity of the institute that may touch upon the interests of Turkey and Azerbaijan. One of these tasks is control over interaction of experts of the Institute on the topics of Turkey, Azerbaijan, Armenia.
Ten years ago it would be absolutely unacceptable for the UK where a certain style and rules of conduct in academic and political circles. In 2009 James Nixey tried zealously to counteract spread of positive assessments on possible normalization of the Turkish-Armenian relations. At this moment a high-ranking official of the Turkish embassy to London swore that Turkey has no relation to James Nixey's ardor, and apparently it is their “brothers” Azerbaijanis’ doing.
Now James Nixey has spoken about the expected initialing of the agreement between the EU and Armenia, expressing doubt about its probability. Let it be but James Nixey refers to pressure and force by Russia as the main argument against signing the agreement. Below are citations from the Azerbaijani mass media.
"Russia is not well-known for playing the cards that it holds tremendously well. It could -- were it to have a more enlightened attitude toward the other former Soviet states -- as we know in so many other cases, it could be so much more attractive than it is. But it tends to slide roughshod over them," Nixey explains. "It tends to not pay them due respect, the kind of respect that Russia itself feels it deserves from Western countries, for example."
He believes Yerevan has not yet made a final decision on the choice between deeper relations with the EU or joining Russia's customs union. He notes that the EU agreements entail commitments to political and economic reforms that the government might yet prove unwilling to make. The Eurasian Customs Union, by contrast, comes with no strings attached and, very likely, considerable short-term economic benefits.
At the same time, public support in Armenia for EU integration appears to be growing as tangible results emerge on the horizon. And the very atypical wave of public anger toward Russia over the increase in gas prices, the Harutiunian case, and the sale of arms to Azerbaijan could signal a significant shift in the public mood. One that, Nixey says, President Serzh Sarkisian needs to take into account.
"These sort of semi-authoritarian states take the temperature of public opinion very seriously and they wouldn't want to move too far beyond it," the analyst says. "And taking too much stick, taking too much punishment from Russia, too much humiliation, I think, would be very unwise for Mr. Sarkisian, politically speaking."
Hence, the goal is to prevent the European integration of Armenia. The UK embassy to Armenia should make inquiries into the arguments of the member of a leading analytical center of their country.
It should be noted that Regnum Information and Analytical Service which has a leading role in the Russian system of propaganda in the regional, including the South Caucasian direction did not fail to highlight James Nixey’s speech. In other words, the interests of Russia, Azerbaijan and the Turkish-Azerbaijani lobby are aligned. Apparently, this is not the first time.
Earlier Regnum published an article according to which Amanda Paul, a visible expert on Turkey and Eastern Europe of the Brussels-based European Political Center questions the possibility of initialing of the agreement in November. It is not a secret that Amanda Paul has close relations with political and analytical circles in Turkey and positions on Turkish interests are understood, of course. However, following the publication in Lragir.am, I received the following letter from Amanda Paul:
Dear Professor Muradyan,
I hope that this message finds you well? I just came across the following link, which is a commentary by you referring to a piece (which by the way I have not yet seen) which I give focus to Armenia’s Association Agreement with the EU and Russia’s relations. http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/30434
First of all I am very disappointed by the words you use to described me – particularly labeling me as part of the “Turkish lobby” or “Turkish agent”. This a false statement, one only as to look at the articles I have written related to Turkey – including in the context of Turkey-Armenia rapprochement – to understand this. I am more so disappointed because I have enjoyed our discussion in Brussels during your last visit and the previous one before that.
As regards Russia, it has been widely acknowledged, including in EU circles and in the media, that Russia is pressing Armenia not to sign Association Agreement/DCFTA with the EU. I did not make up this information. And as I have said many times, I dearly hope Armenia will proceed to signature as it will be highly beneficial for the country.
Please, if you have a copy of the article that you refer to in your comments, I would very much appreciate to receive it so I can read it.
With many thanks in advance
Best regards
Amanda
Amanda Paul
Policy Analyst & Programme Executive
EU’s Eastern Neighbourhood, Russia, Turkey and Eurasia Region
European Policy Centre (EPC)
Residence Palace
Rue de la Loi 155
1040 Brussels
Tel : 32 2 231 03 40
Fax : 32 2 230 74 72
Mobile : 32 499 31 6868
The experts must be aware of their big responsibility for their pronouncements. However, not only the European engagement rushed to question the perspectives of integration of Armenia with the Western community. Ariel Cohen, Senior Research Fellow for Russian and Eurasian Studies and International Energy, told the Azerbaijani information agency Vesti.az the historical friendship and strategic partnership between Russia and Armenia have not vanished and most probably will not, and the high-ranking Armenian diplomats will probably be able to ensure balance between Europe and Russia,
Cohen says Russia needs to display that it protects its clients evidence to which is, according to him, the agreement on the Russian troops in Gyumri, close cooperation between Yerevan and Moscow and certainly conversations on Armenia’s likelihood to join the Eurasian Union.
Cohen notes that Yerevan also wants to balance and is committed to integration with Europe. But it does not mean that it has abandoned Moscow, he says, adding that the Armenian diplomats are professionals, and they may succeed, provided the huge Diaspora in Russia and Europe.
In addition, Ariel Cohen underlined that historical military ties between Armenia and Russia, its distrust in Turkey, hostility with Azerbaijan make it stay in its strategic union with Russia. Besides, it gives Russia access to the Turkish and Iranian borders.
The American researcher thinks that Russia has a crisp and clear stance on the region. Russia does not want a lasting peace in the Caucasus because in this way the military and political role of Russia in the Caucasian region will diminish. Therefore, Russia needs tension among the states of the South Caucasus. Ariel Cohen thinks that some Moscow-based forces describe lack of tension in the South Caucasus as a minus, Panorama.am reports.
Hence, the main argument is – hard though the West may try to absorb Armenia, it will not be able to retrieve it from Russian influence, so expectations are not optimistic. Russia is interested in high tension in the South Caucasus, while the West will face lots of problems in the “Armenian project”. The West is scared with Russia. In addition, the heads of the Armenian community in the UK support James Nixey, most probably, out of stupidity.
Apparently, the powerful Anglo-Saxon analytical forces have come to rescue Armenian political scientists but engagement is cheapie that nobody cares for.
- See more at: http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/com....4UdN17N4.dpuf
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