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Aftereffects of signing Armenian-Turkish Protocols still unclear
Arguments on “returning of territories” or on renewal of expired international treaties can lead to nothing good.
The intensity of passions among various representatives of the Armenian nation has almost reached its climax. People, having rather a vague idea about the essence of the Armenian-Turkish Protocols and their significance for Armenia and the Armenian nation, severely blame each other, the President and the Government.
/PanARMENIAN.Net/ It has become a sign of good manner to loudly declare your disagreement (or agreement) with the documents, which in principle may not even be signed. The point is that despite the date set for signing the protocols - October 10, it is still unclear whether Armenia will sign them or not. Even the contents is not so important as the fact how effectively the Protocols are used. It’s common knowledge that protocols, even when initialed and signed, can be a simple piece of paper, if they are not ratified by the parliaments of the two countries. As far as Armenia is concerned, no problems will arise here - the National Assembly of Armenia will ratify the Protocols. Quite different is the position of Turkey. Reliable sources state that Armenia requires guarantees from Ankara on mandatory ratification of the Protocols, otherwise Yerevan will not sign anything. But it is exactly what the government of Gul and Erdogan cannot guarantee. Moreover, at the summit of Turkic-speaking countries in Nakhijevan Abdullah Gul again talked of the Karabakh issue as a precondition for normalizing relations. And all this happens when the world community is really in anticipation of signing the Protocols. It is unlikely that Turkish authorities should fail to understand that the United States, Russia and Europe are not determined to wait until Ankara makes bold to tell Azerbaijan: “Excuse us, brothers, but we have to sign the Protocols.”
Fuel is added to the fire by home-grown patriots and analysts, who, as we have repeatedly mentioned, are simply carrying out their self-advertising campaign. Had they a will, they would declare the President of Armenia a second Vasak Syuni... They are ready to do it and no one would ever tell these awkward patriots that with their statements they simply give an extra motivation to Ankara to refuse to normalize relations. If anyone thinks that the Armenian Genocide and the memory of the soldiers killed in the Karabakh war can be consigned to oblivion, they are deeply mistaken. Any head of the Armenian state, who is ready to this step, could, at best, offer his resignation. Let us not discuss the worst case. And hardly can our Diaspora be so naive as to assume that the RA President can say one thing and do another. After all, one should always think twice before shouting slogans that are worth nothing. These slogans have no value, no matter how determined the analysts are in their attempts to “demonize” Serzh Sargsyan. He is simply a human being, although being president of a country. Scarcely can he be tempted by the dubious “glory” of Vasak Syuni. With the light (or perhaps wicked) hand of Armenian writer Derenik Demirchyan, the image of Vasak became the symbol of a traitor of a nation. Since the novel was published, Armenian parents have never given this name to their sons. However, no one takes into account what sufferings Vasak had to bear. Warriors of Vardan died earning martyrdom, while Vasak ended his days in sorrow and grief.
Sometimes it seems the Armenians should be prohibited to read historical novels, which on the one hand instill patriotism, while on the other, lead into the past, which is nothing but regret and sorrow. And the result is apparent; we have become a nation living in the past, to some extent in the present, but certainly not in the future. Let us repeat once again: we are not going to forget the fate of nearly two million people in Western Armenia. It must always be kept in mind, but arguments on “returning of territories” or, even worse, on renewal of expired international treaties can lead to nothing good.
No matter how unpleasant it may be, it is necessary to build relations with the Turks. But the interesting point is that all the Armenian population goes on vacation to Turkish resorts and comes back in rapture with the intention to go there next year as well. And they all go through Georgia, which is very inconvenient. But who cares that these hotels are built on the bones of Western Armenians? So, we needn’t arouse a storm in a teacup, beat on the chest and scream about patriotism. All this leads to the thought that maybe all of these protests are a PR campaign too, in order not to sign the Protocols in case any problems occur…
In short, the Armenian nation, as always, writs proclamation, signs petitions, stages protest actions. Alas, we are unable to go beyond that. Or perhaps we do not want to...?
Silence is deceptive, the region is in anticipation
No projects will be considered in the region until the Armenian-Turkish Protocols are signed
Region and even the whole world are frozen in anticipation. And although the date of signing the truly historic protocols between Turkey and Armenia is already announced, the parties proceed with extreme caution. Despite the fact that no force majeure is expected, better safe than sorry. However, Azerbaijan may try to provoke force majeure, staging provocations in Nagorno-Karabakh, like those of March 4 of this year.
/PanARMENIAN.Net/ But this time Azerbaijan will not have a chance to take a step, fraught with not only tensions but also war. Ankara will be the first to prevent it, as she, at long last, was able to work off the promises so "prudently" given to Baku in exchange for the pipeline Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan to pass through the territory of Turkey. Yet, in the end, the pipeline did not yield the profit the Turkish leadership hoped. But the point is not only the pipelines in use: no projects will be considered in the region until the Armenian-Turkish Protocols are signed. Somehow the world stopped talking of Nabucco, the main project for Europe and Turkey. The problem of the Caspian Sea and even Iran's nuclear program are mow less spoken about. Though the President of Turkmenistan spoke of the Caspian Sea once again on October 1, most probably it was a battle reconnaissance and a desire to sound out the possibilities for further steps. All the main players, i.e. the United States and Russia are waiting for October 10. Even the expected meeting between the Presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan in Chisinau is perceived as a kind of tribute to the achieved agreement, which is simply impossible to undo. No one mentions that it is going to be totally unproductive and even unnecessary, because it is clear as it is. It is also clear that after October 15 there will begin changes in the region that will first have an impact on Azerbaijan and Georgia, and only after that on Armenia and Turkey. Moreover, the reaction will go increasingly: opening of the Armenian-Turkish border in the next two months and possible but still not exact opening of diplomatic offices in Yerevan and Ankara. What will happen next is unknown. Neither is it known how these changes will affect the region in regulating the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. No matter how hard the diplomats try to assure that the Armenian-Turkish relations have nothing to do with Karabakh, in fact, everything is the other way round. Turkey, having some obligations to Armenia, though they are not very clear, cannot openly play on Azerbaijan’s side. Neither can she integrate into the Minsk Group as no one would give her that right. Moreover, if there is anyone in Turkey believing that normalization of relations with Armenia would open a door to the EU, they are either naive or they are creating illusions for themselves. One of the first statements of re-elected Chancellor of Germany Angela Merkel was: “Germany shares the observation of France on the opportunity of Turkey to join the EU”.
Europe’s interests in Turkey go no further than viewing it as a transit country for Nabucco, especially since the main problem for smooth operation of any pipeline, i.e. the Kurdish problem, is not solved. Armenia, of course, poses no threat to the security of Nabucco, which cannot be said about the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, best known as PKK. It is now more important for Europe to normalize relations with Iran, with which negotiations “5 +1” begin next week. Meetings with high-ranking U.S. and Iranian diplomats too have resumed on a “neutral” territory. The first meeting was in Baghdad, others are expected in Qatar or Kuwait. In the words of Zbigniew Brzezinski, there begins the “biggest game” in the region - the struggle for supremacy - which involves not only the entire Middle East but also the Central Asian countries and Afghanistan. Who the next regional leader will follow - Russia or the United States? This is the question for the “biggest game”.
What can Armenia gain from all this? Only a way out of isolation and economic dividends or a real hope to become a fully competent South Caucasus country with all the attendant consequences, the most important among them being the consolidation of the current status of Nagorno-Karabakh? Perhaps in defiance of Azerbaijan, Armenia will receive some benefits as a transit country. But it will occur only if Iran joins energy projects, which so far seems rather unreal. However.... never say never, because five years ago nobody could predict that events would take such a turn and would develop so quickly. The drawback is that universal questions, such as recognition of the Armenian Genocide may move to the background, which is very bad for the Armenian people as a whole. But everything here depends on the flexibility of the Armenian diplomacy and its ability to have its own way, which we have discussed repeatedly.
http://www.panarmenian.net/details/eng/?nid=1074
I see more possible positives for Armenia then this as i described previously also i agree that this agreement has strong implications on the Kharabagh issue and they ar.e mostly in our favor
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