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Is Russia an ally or foe, nowadays?

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  • Re: Is Russia an ally or foe, nowadays?

    Originally posted by Artashes View Post
    Yes, I'm in full agreement on that. The killing of Armenian patriots by both soviet & Russian forces under direct kremlin authority absolutely has to be included in the equation.
    The Armenian patriots I speak of are in fact simply men & women who are fighting for the right to live on their ancestral homeland & and the right to retain their ancestral homeland.
    There is no justification (ligitimate) for that.
    Unfortunately as I see it all the other entities are ready to sell us to.
    Does Armenia have any real friends?
    Artashes
    Does any country on this earth have any real friends? No
    Armenian patriots have been killed not only by russian but turkish, iranian, arab, georgian, azeri even by british, french, german, ukrainian and many other forces. Its all about interests.It is sad reality.
    There are many interests boiling in our pot.
    There are prowestern as wel as proeastern veterans and patriots.
    When they get involved in politics or business, then their actions are subject to be right or wrong for our nation.
    Aside from respect to them, it is important to figure which side is the right philosophy that is beneficial for Armenia.
    To get to the bottom, it is important to see clearly, the thruth and real facts. Nobody does any favor by twisting reality or facts.
    That has been guiding me all along.

    Comment


    • Re: Is Russia an ally or foe, nowadays?





      Putin refused all the requests of Armenia.

      1. He said Iran-Armenia railway is financially complicated and refused to finance it.

      2. He did not finance the North-South Highway.
      The representative of the Russian ministry of transport said Armenia wants to sign with Russia an agreement on international transport for whatever reason.

      3. There will be no financing for the construction of the new NPP. The agreement states possible prolongation of the old NPP.

      4. He did not utter a word on whether the Russian base will intervene in case of aggression against Armenia (such issues protract a peace settlement– V. Putin said).


      Instead, he collected a lot of tribute.

      1. He achieved verification of the agreement on strategic cooperation that may block the way of other countries to the defense market of Armenia.

      2. He achieved the establishment of a presidential council, depriving Serzh Sargsyan of the right to sovereign decisions.

      3. He achieved commitments to eternal Armenian-Russian friendship and reiterations that the Russian base is the guarantee of security of Armenia.

      4. He got 20% of shares of ARG, which blocked the way of Iranian gas to the Armenian market.

      The only thing that Russia did was to exempt

      oil, gas and diamonds.

      In addition,

      all the three products will be handled by Russian companies

      (Rosneft has signed an agreement on setting up a joint venture,

      and there is no doubt that it will be a monopole oil trader in Armenia.)
      .
      Can anybody refute these facts, from the Putin visit to Armenia.
      Its from Lragir, not my favourate news source but so what.

      .
      Politics is not about the pursuit of morality nor what's right or wrong
      Its about self interest at personal and national level often at odds with the above.
      Great politicians pursue the National interest and small politicians personal interests

      Comment


      • Re: Is Russia an ally or foe, nowadays?

        Originally posted by londontsi View Post
        http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/31465

        Can anybody refute these facts, from the Putin visit to Armenia.
        Its from Lragir, not my favourate news source but so what.

        .
        I had already done this on a post in a facebook group, so for the sake of time, I'm gonna just copy and paste my comment:

        Claim #4
        "He got 20% of shares of ARG, which blocked the way of Iranian gas to the Armenian market"

        "The Iranian ambassador declined to specify the exact gas tariff for Armenia, noting that Iran exports gas at international market prices."
        The price of a thousand cubic meter of natural gas is $400 in international markets.
        So even if Russia is blocking the sell of Iranian gas, it would not make any difference, because Armenia couldn't afford it.


        Claim #1
        "1. He achieved verification of the agreement on strategic cooperation that may block the way of other countries to the defense market of Armenia."
        A few days ago Armenia got 4 300-PS systems for $30 Million
        Armenia has had the S-300 since at least 2006
        Iran paid $800 Million for 5 S-300VM systems
        The Russian President has not given orders to complete a deal to transfer the S-300 surface-to-air defense system to Iran, the President’s spokesman said Wednesday, refuting earlier rumors that the deal had gone through.

        Even though Russia was paid, it wasn't allowed to deliver this system
        I repeat that, Armenia paid about 5% of what Iran paid for a similar defense system. I must note that the VM is a more advanced version than the PS, but they are nonetheless variations of the same very advanced defense system. A defense system that Iran does not have. A defense system that many notable countries around the world don't have access to. A defense system that the Azeris just got, that Armenia has had since at least 2006!
        So something that you claim " that may block"
        How about this Mrs. Hayrumyan, please forget Russia and show me what other options you would have if not for Russia. explain how would get something even with 5 times the price Russia is making Armenia pay. nobody is lining up to sell Armenia weapons, Let alone give them away for free. I would love to see what Russia is preventing Armenia from getting

        What competition are these people seeking? You are angry because you're getting Gas for 45% of the Market Value? You're angry because you're getting weapons for 0-20% of the Market value? Really, you rather have Russia and Iran fight over selling you gas at $400, than just get it for $189 (soon to decline even more). Please someone explain this to me.

        Claim 3
        " He achieved commitments to eternal Armenian-Russian friendship and reiterations that the Russian base is the guarantee of security of Armenia."
        I'm sorry how is this even a criticism, or him collecting tribune? Just a reminder. Japan has made enemies out of people who wouldn't have to be its enemies, has made itself a target of multiple countries, and has given up the right to have any offensive weapons . all to have American bases and alliance on its country. That the worlds thrids biggest economy. You're telling me A commitment to continue to have that base is something we didn't want?

        Maybe someone can explain to me claim 2 about the presidential counsel as I don't know enough about it to comment



        Now some of the things Putin didn't do:

        "He did not utter a word on whether the Russian base will intervene in case of aggression against Armenia."
        First of, if there's a war almost certainly will never include Armenia proper. It will involve Artsakh. Russia has no obligation to intervene in Artsakh. If Armenia is attacked, which will never be risked by even the morons that are the leaders of the Toorks to the East, Russia would have to, something that has been reiterated many times before

        " He said Iran-Armenia railway is financially complicated and refused to finance it" of the right to sovereign decisions."
        Is there a source for this, because I had not read anything similar to this, and cannot find anything about it other than this article, can some share where the source is for this. The only this I have heard about this is that Iran is ready to spend 1.5billion to build its part as soon as Armenia finds funding for its section, and that Russia made a general commitment in september
        Other news sites say:
        "During December 2 visit to Armenia Russian president Vladimir Putin, described this project as financially complicated, but feasible."
        http://arka.am/.../iran_ready_to_fin...nstruction.../...
        Not to mention Russian companies have shown interest in funding it, separate from the Russian state, which had never previously made any sort of commitment or comment about funding the project
        So putin saying it's complicated but feasible, while Russian companies have shown an interest in funding it, is certainly a much different reality than him saying its complicated and refusing to finance it

        " He did not finance the North-South Highway. The representative of the Russian ministry of transport said Armenia wants to sign with Russia an agreement on international transport for whatever reason."
        Can someone explain this please? when did Russia have an obligation or commitment to finance this project?
        I know they have committed to this
        Armenia will get $100 million from a Eurasian Economic Community anti-crisis fund, a Eurasian Development Bank official said Wednesday.

        From the way it's stated, it sounds like this is in addition to this
        When did that happen? I don't understand why was putin expected to this? Does Naira thinking Putin is just santa claus, throwing around presents. They've already committed $100 mill. Why would they randomly decide to finance more of it. Furthermore it's already mostly financed

        "There will be no financing for the construction of the new NPP. The agreement states possible prolongation of the old NPP. "
        Again, they agreed to update it
        what obligation did they have to take on a project that will cost BILLIONS of dollars? Why were they required to do so?

        Notice Russia gives us things that it has for free. Gas, older weapons that it is upgrading (s-300 replaced by s-400). But why would it have an obligation to just take on billions of dollars of projects
        did the EU agree to do all of that, or is this standard just only for Russia

        Comment


        • Re: Is Russia an ally or foe, nowadays?

          Originally posted by Mher View Post
          I had already done this on a post in a facebook group, so for the sake of time, I'm gonna just copy and paste my comment:

          Claim #4
          "He got 20% of shares of ARG, which blocked the way of Iranian gas to the Armenian market"

          "The Iranian ambassador declined to specify the exact gas tariff for Armenia, noting that Iran exports gas at international market prices."
          The price of a thousand cubic meter of natural gas is $400 in international markets.
          So even if Russia is blocking the sell of Iranian gas, it would not make any difference, because Armenia couldn't afford it.


          Claim #1
          "1. He achieved verification of the agreement on strategic cooperation that may block the way of other countries to the defense market of Armenia."
          A few days ago Armenia got 4 300-PS systems for $30 Million
          Armenia has had the S-300 since at least 2006
          Iran paid $800 Million for 5 S-300VM systems
          The Russian President has not given orders to complete a deal to transfer the S-300 surface-to-air defense system to Iran, the President’s spokesman said Wednesday, refuting earlier rumors that the deal had gone through.

          Even though Russia was paid, it wasn't allowed to deliver this system
          I repeat that, Armenia paid about 5% of what Iran paid for a similar defense system. I must note that the VM is a more advanced version than the PS, but they are nonetheless variations of the same very advanced defense system. A defense system that Iran does not have. A defense system that many notable countries around the world don't have access to. A defense system that the Azeris just got, that Armenia has had since at least 2006!
          So something that you claim " that may block"
          How about this Mrs. Hayrumyan, please forget Russia and show me what other options you would have if not for Russia. explain how would get something even with 5 times the price Russia is making Armenia pay. nobody is lining up to sell Armenia weapons, Let alone give them away for free. I would love to see what Russia is preventing Armenia from getting

          What competition are these people seeking? You are angry because you're getting Gas for 45% of the Market Value? You're angry because you're getting weapons for 0-20% of the Market value? Really, you rather have Russia and Iran fight over selling you gas at $400, than just get it for $189 (soon to decline even more). Please someone explain this to me.

          Claim 3
          " He achieved commitments to eternal Armenian-Russian friendship and reiterations that the Russian base is the guarantee of security of Armenia."
          I'm sorry how is this even a criticism, or him collecting tribune? Just a reminder. Japan has made enemies out of people who wouldn't have to be its enemies, has made itself a target of multiple countries, and has given up the right to have any offensive weapons . all to have American bases and alliance on its country. That the worlds thrids biggest economy. You're telling me A commitment to continue to have that base is something we didn't want?

          Maybe someone can explain to me claim 2 about the presidential counsel as I don't know enough about it to comment



          Now some of the things Putin didn't do:

          "He did not utter a word on whether the Russian base will intervene in case of aggression against Armenia."
          First of, if there's a war almost certainly will never include Armenia proper. It will involve Artsakh. Russia has no obligation to intervene in Artsakh. If Armenia is attacked, which will never be risked by even the morons that are the leaders of the Toorks to the East, Russia would have to, something that has been reiterated many times before

          " He said Iran-Armenia railway is financially complicated and refused to finance it" of the right to sovereign decisions."
          Is there a source for this, because I had not read anything similar to this, and cannot find anything about it other than this article, can some share where the source is for this. The only this I have heard about this is that Iran is ready to spend 1.5billion to build its part as soon as Armenia finds funding for its section, and that Russia made a general commitment in september
          Other news sites say:
          "During December 2 visit to Armenia Russian president Vladimir Putin, described this project as financially complicated, but feasible."
          http://arka.am/.../iran_ready_to_fin...nstruction.../...
          Not to mention Russian companies have shown interest in funding it, separate from the Russian state, which had never previously made any sort of commitment or comment about funding the project
          So putin saying it's complicated but feasible, while Russian companies have shown an interest in funding it, is certainly a much different reality than him saying its complicated and refusing to finance it

          " He did not finance the North-South Highway. The representative of the Russian ministry of transport said Armenia wants to sign with Russia an agreement on international transport for whatever reason."
          Can someone explain this please? when did Russia have an obligation or commitment to finance this project?
          I know they have committed to this
          Armenia will get $100 million from a Eurasian Economic Community anti-crisis fund, a Eurasian Development Bank official said Wednesday.

          From the way it's stated, it sounds like this is in addition to this
          When did that happen? I don't understand why was putin expected to this? Does Naira thinking Putin is just santa claus, throwing around presents. They've already committed $100 mill. Why would they randomly decide to finance more of it. Furthermore it's already mostly financed

          "There will be no financing for the construction of the new NPP. The agreement states possible prolongation of the old NPP. "
          Again, they agreed to update it
          what obligation did they have to take on a project that will cost BILLIONS of dollars? Why were they required to do so?

          Notice Russia gives us things that it has for free. Gas, older weapons that it is upgrading (s-300 replaced by s-400). But why would it have an obligation to just take on billions of dollars of projects
          did the EU agree to do all of that, or is this standard just only for Russia
          On numerous occasions when a post is in Armenian script tha refers to the "news" outlet you bring into question, I have read the English version. When I go down list list of headline topics it does seem quite there is a definite & consistent slant to the articles. It reminds me of fox news outlet in the USA. Such blatant one sided point of view & all other points of view are ridiculed.
          By you giving other reports with sources certainly helps me understand & consider these important issues.
          Artashes

          Comment


          • Re: Is Russia an ally or foe, nowadays?

            Originally posted by Mher View Post
            I had already done this on a post in a facebook group, so for the sake of time, I'm gonna just copy and paste my comment:

            Claim #4
            "He got 20% of shares of ARG, which blocked the way of Iranian gas to the Armenian market"

            "The Iranian ambassador declined to specify the exact gas tariff for Armenia, noting that Iran exports gas at international market prices."
            The price of a thousand cubic meter of natural gas is $400 in international markets.
            So even if Russia is blocking the sell of Iranian gas, it would not make any difference, because Armenia couldn't afford it.


            Claim #1
            "1. He achieved verification of the agreement on strategic cooperation that may block the way of other countries to the defense market of Armenia."
            A few days ago Armenia got 4 300-PS systems for $30 Million
            Armenia has had the S-300 since at least 2006
            Iran paid $800 Million for 5 S-300VM systems
            The Russian President has not given orders to complete a deal to transfer the S-300 surface-to-air defense system to Iran, the President’s spokesman said Wednesday, refuting earlier rumors that the deal had gone through.

            Even though Russia was paid, it wasn't allowed to deliver this system
            I repeat that, Armenia paid about 5% of what Iran paid for a similar defense system. I must note that the VM is a more advanced version than the PS, but they are nonetheless variations of the same very advanced defense system. A defense system that Iran does not have. A defense system that many notable countries around the world don't have access to. A defense system that the Azeris just got, that Armenia has had since at least 2006!
            So something that you claim " that may block"
            How about this Mrs. Hayrumyan, please forget Russia and show me what other options you would have if not for Russia. explain how would get something even with 5 times the price Russia is making Armenia pay. nobody is lining up to sell Armenia weapons, Let alone give them away for free. I would love to see what Russia is preventing Armenia from getting

            What competition are these people seeking? You are angry because you're getting Gas for 45% of the Market Value? You're angry because you're getting weapons for 0-20% of the Market value? Really, you rather have Russia and Iran fight over selling you gas at $400, than just get it for $189 (soon to decline even more). Please someone explain this to me.

            Claim 3
            " He achieved commitments to eternal Armenian-Russian friendship and reiterations that the Russian base is the guarantee of security of Armenia."
            I'm sorry how is this even a criticism, or him collecting tribune? Just a reminder. Japan has made enemies out of people who wouldn't have to be its enemies, has made itself a target of multiple countries, and has given up the right to have any offensive weapons . all to have American bases and alliance on its country. That the worlds thrids biggest economy. You're telling me A commitment to continue to have that base is something we didn't want?

            Maybe someone can explain to me claim 2 about the presidential counsel as I don't know enough about it to comment



            Now some of the things Putin didn't do:

            "He did not utter a word on whether the Russian base will intervene in case of aggression against Armenia."
            First of, if there's a war almost certainly will never include Armenia proper. It will involve Artsakh. Russia has no obligation to intervene in Artsakh. If Armenia is attacked, which will never be risked by even the morons that are the leaders of the Toorks to the East, Russia would have to, something that has been reiterated many times before

            " He said Iran-Armenia railway is financially complicated and refused to finance it" of the right to sovereign decisions."
            Is there a source for this, because I had not read anything similar to this, and cannot find anything about it other than this article, can some share where the source is for this. The only this I have heard about this is that Iran is ready to spend 1.5billion to build its part as soon as Armenia finds funding for its section, and that Russia made a general commitment in september
            Other news sites say:
            "During December 2 visit to Armenia Russian president Vladimir Putin, described this project as financially complicated, but feasible."
            http://arka.am/.../iran_ready_to_fin...nstruction.../...
            Not to mention Russian companies have shown interest in funding it, separate from the Russian state, which had never previously made any sort of commitment or comment about funding the project
            So putin saying it's complicated but feasible, while Russian companies have shown an interest in funding it, is certainly a much different reality than him saying its complicated and refusing to finance it

            " He did not finance the North-South Highway. The representative of the Russian ministry of transport said Armenia wants to sign with Russia an agreement on international transport for whatever reason."
            Can someone explain this please? when did Russia have an obligation or commitment to finance this project?
            I know they have committed to this
            Armenia will get $100 million from a Eurasian Economic Community anti-crisis fund, a Eurasian Development Bank official said Wednesday.

            From the way it's stated, it sounds like this is in addition to this
            When did that happen? I don't understand why was putin expected to this? Does Naira thinking Putin is just santa claus, throwing around presents. They've already committed $100 mill. Why would they randomly decide to finance more of it. Furthermore it's already mostly financed

            "There will be no financing for the construction of the new NPP. The agreement states possible prolongation of the old NPP. "
            Again, they agreed to update it
            what obligation did they have to take on a project that will cost BILLIONS of dollars? Why were they required to do so?

            Notice Russia gives us things that it has for free. Gas, older weapons that it is upgrading (s-300 replaced by s-400). But why would it have an obligation to just take on billions of dollars of projects
            did the EU agree to do all of that, or is this standard just only for Russia
            Originally posted by Artashes View Post
            On numerous occasions when a post is in Armenian script tha refers to the "news" outlet you bring into question, I have read the English version. When I go down list list of headline topics it does seem quite there is a definite & consistent slant to the articles. It reminds me of fox news outlet in the USA. Such blatant one sided point of view & all other points of view are ridiculed.
            By you giving other reports with sources certainly helps me understand & consider these important issues.
            Artashes
            Felt is was important to add this... Up until Londontsi asked for verification of things stated from this news outlet & Mhere's detailed analysis & questioning with different source references, I thought this publication (? Leragir? Sp) was publishing accepted facts & did not perceive what to me now seems consistently slanted and biased toward an opinion. I thought I was reading unbiased reporting.
            These discussions and questioning each other on factual sources are helping me & hopefully others understand.
            Artashes

            Comment


            • Re: Is Russia an ally or foe, nowadays?

              Originally posted by Artashes View Post
              On numerous occasions when a post is in Armenian script tha refers to the "news" outlet you bring into question, I have read the English version. When I go down list list of headline topics it does seem quite there is a definite & consistent slant to the articles. It reminds me of fox news outlet in the USA. Such blatant one sided point of view & all other points of view are ridiculed.
              By you giving other reports with sources certainly helps me understand & consider these important issues.
              Artashes
              FoxNews would be a perfect way to describe it

              See my problem with this kind of publication comes down to two things:

              1) They're not driven by reporting, delivering the news and the facts. Rather they are driven by bringing a certain point of view and opinion of the facts. This leads to selective coverage, hiring anyone who supports that view rather than hiring actual professionals and experts, complete lack of professionalism to a point where the content barely qualifies as "english", and worst of all blatant lies.

              2) Because they want to fuel discontent, hoping it fuels mass revolution, they constantly deliver negative news. Everything has to be negative. Oh Armenians collect 22 million dollars for infrastructure, let's make up unsubstantiated lies to somehow turn it into a negative. An Armenian team of underpaid coaches and 22 year old previously unknown soccer players has reached #34 in the world? let's not mention it. Armenia signs key trade agreements, let's ignore it. A group of 10 protesters led by an insane man, armed with manganese bombs and molotov xxxxtails, sticks, and stones? Let's make him out to be some Che Guevara revolutionary http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/country/view/31244

              Comment


              • Re: Is Russia an ally or foe, nowadays?

                I think this analysis is most appropriate for this topic, both the blogger's analysis in the beginning and the collection of articles at the end:

                http://theriseofrussia.blogspot.com/...s-armenia.html

                Comment


                • Re: Is Russia an ally or foe, nowadays?

                  Here is a news further exposing "Lragir's" lies.


                  Հայաստանի էներգետիկայի նախարար. «ՀայՌուսգազարդը» կարող է գնել նաեւ ոչ ռուսական գազ



                  Դեկտեմբեր 09, 2013 | 23:22
                  «ՀայՌուսգազարդը» կարող է գնել նաեւ ոչ ռուսական գազ: Այդ մասին NEWS.am-ի թղթակցին է հայտնել Հայաստանի էներգետիկայի նախարար Արմեն Մովսիսյանը:

                  Նրա խոսքով՝ թեեւ այժմ «ՀայՌուսգազարդն» ամբողջությամբ պատկանում է ռուսական «Գազպրոմին», սակայն Հայաստանի էներգետիկ քաղաքականությունը շարունակում է որոշել կառավարությունը: «ՀայՌուսգազարդի» արտոնագրի պայմաններից մեկի համաձայն՝ այն պետք է ավելի էժան գազ ձեռք բերի, եթե այդպիսին կգտնվի», - նշել է նախարարը: Նա նշել է նաեւ, որ մոտ ապագայում պատրաստվում է հանդիպել Հայաստանում Իրանի դեսպան Մոհամմադ Ռեիսիի հետ եւ հստակեցնել, արդյոք Թեհրանը ցանկանում է Հայաստանին գազի մատակարարման վերաբերյալ բանակցություններ առաջարկել եւ ինչ պայմաններով: «Ես կապվել եմ պարոն Ռեիսիի հետ, մամուլի առջեւ ունեցած ելույթից անմիջապես հետո: Դրանից հետո նա մեկնեց Իրան, եւ նրա ժամանումից հետ մտադիր եմ հանդիպել նրան», - հայտարարել է նախարարը: Հիշեցնենք, որ մի քանի օր առաջ մամուլի ասուլիսի ժամանակ Իրանի դեսպան Մոհամմադ Ռեիսին հայտարարել էր, որ Իրանը կարող է բարեկամ երկրներին, այդ թվում նաեւ Հայաստանին, ավելի արտոնյալ պայմաններով գազ մատակարարել, իսկ մանրամասները կարելի է հստակեցնել բանակցությունների ընթացքում:

                  Այնուամենայնիվ, նախարարը հավելել է, որ իրանական կողմը ռուսականից էժան գին չի առաջարկել: «2010թ. - ին Իրանի գազի ազգային ընկերությունը մեզ հայտնեց, որ փոխանակման սխեման ՝ 3 կՎտ ժամ էլեկտրաէներգիան 1 խմ գազի դիմաց, այլեւս ձեռնտու չէ իրենց, եւ առաջարկեց մեծացնել այն 1-ից մինչեւ 5: Տեխնիկապես իրականացնել դա անհնար էր, ինչը հասկանում էին նաեւ մեր գործընկերները: Մեկ տարում, մինչեւ 2012թ. մայիս, ես հինգ հանդիպում եմ ունեցել Իրանում բարձր մակարդակում, այդ թվում արտաքին գործերի նախարարի, նավթի եւ գազի նախարարի, փոխնախարարի, նույն ինքը Իրանի գազի ազգային ընկերության ղեկավարի հետ: Նրանք ասում էին, որ Իրանը մեծ հաճույքով դուրս կգար «1-ը 3-ի դիմաց» ռեժիմից ու գազը կվաճառեր փողի դիմաց: Իսկ Հայաստանի հետ այլ սկզբունքներով աշխատանքը, ինչպիսիք որ մյուս հարեւանների դեպքում է, կազդեր երկրի արտաքին հեղինակության վրա»,- պարզաբանել է Մովսիսյանը:

                  Ինչ վերաբերում է դրամական պայմաններին, ապա իրանական կողմը չկարողացավ Հայաստանին 440 դոլարից ցածր գին առաջարկել, ինչը ոչ մի կերպ էժան չի ռուսական 189 դոլարից, նշել է նախարարը: «Իհարկե, մենք կգնենք նրանից, ով ավելի էժան է առաջարկում: Եթե Իրանը ցանկանա Հայաստանի համար հարմար պայմաններով բանակցություններ վարել, մենք պատրաստ ենք»,- հայտարարել է նախարարը:


                  Iran has never offered Armenia gas for less then $440 per 1000QM.

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                  • Re: Is Russia an ally or foe, nowadays?

                    [oooo
                    Last edited by Vrej1915; 12-09-2013, 10:11 PM.

                    Comment


                    • Re: Is Russia an ally or foe, nowadays?

                      Originally posted by Mher View Post
                      Hi Vrej jan
                      First of let me say this: As someone much older than me, who fought for the country, who is still in Armenia, I think you have the right to have any view you chose, and unless I, or anyone here for that matter, make the same sacrifices you have made, nobody here has a right to criticize your opinions. Having said that, can you explain why you think the gas deal is hurting Armenia. Do you truly believe that Iran would sell us gas cheaper than $189, or even $270? Because I can not see in any world were that would be even remotely realistic. I'm not an expert in petroleum engineer or the trade of oil/gas, but to me it seems like when Armenia gets something at half the market price, at domestic prices of Russia, that has to be extremely close to the breakeven value of the gas. Why would Iran be willing to sell us something at a loss or minimal profit? Like I have stated before, I am not particularly fond of Russia or Russian culture. I'm not happy that Armenia has to forgo a lot of independent decisions for the near future. I only recognize the fact that the Russian alliance is necessary for the immediate survival of the Armenian state. So can you please explain what your views are? English or Armenian would be fine. Thank you!
                      1/ With regards to Artashes, I try to do this in english.

                      2/ The arguments of anybody are very respectable, as long as they are reasoned and substantiated, no matter if the guy has never put a foot in Armenia. I tend to ignore only vociferations, based on 'love' to this or other actor..., or 'hate' to this or other, exception being turks.

                      3/ Contrary to the affirmations of the notorius razvetchik member on this forum, who discovered I was paid by the CIA, I am nor Anti Russian, Nor Anti US, Nor Anti EU, nor anti China, Nor Anti Iranian, Nor Anti..... Even if it is fair to say I am anti Turk..;, but that "bias" is not so uncommon here. I tend to compensate that latter of anti, by a non interested love towards anything Italian...
                      I was as stubornly "anti US", when the US tried for more a decade the TARC, and other 'reconciliation' plans with Ankara, the last episode being Serjik's football "diplomacy"..., as I was as much "anti Georgian" when it came to Javakhk or Treghk... and the day may come I will be anti Iranian, if need there was.
                      I can say a few chapters about the dangers of an iranian hug, might be much more dangerous than a russian kiss on the mouth... but it's not the matter of today....

                      4/ Today, the question is not only Gas, gas is a very important factor, but only a factor of the equation.
                      Whether for Russia, Iran, as it is for Baku or Ankara, or the US & EU.
                      Let me just put it clearly, since in the eyes of each player, for the small economy to not say it liliputian economy like ours, gas is just a tool, for the broader geostrategic game.
                      Much more so is the case for Iran, than for any others, by the way.
                      If ever, any of these players did decide, for its national higher interest to subsidise the INTEGRALITY of Armenia's domestic consumption, the bill will always be less than a billion USD/year, which is something any of them can afford, if they had the necessity.
                      Same can't be said for Ukraine....
                      Even the EU can't afford to pay their bill on a long run, given the huge amounts ....


                      Iran has the second proven reserves of Gas in all the Near/Middle East & Eurasia, to say the least.
                      Most of those Gas reserves are still untaped.
                      Iran is not able to sell all its available gas, due to a blockade and all hostile policies, including Russia's gas policies.
                      That is, the gas Iran did not 'granted' us, is a gas that did not earn them billions in an other market, contrary to Russia. It's a gas that will remain as a negligeable fraction, in their already huge gas reserves, under the earth.
                      Iran needs more than anything else, friendly windows, out of the circle of enemy blockade.
                      More so, a window toward the European market.
                      Iran, and in some extent the EU valued our factor due to this element.
                      The day we lost our potential transit route capacity, between EU and Iran (no matter the immediate hostile relations among themselves), due to russian policy/blackmail, a decade ago, we lost a huge value, for those 2 main players, not saying repercussions on Baku? Ankara, Maskva or the US...
                      The gas pipe between Tavriz/Ararat was sabotaged in every way by Russia, since its project phase.
                      Russia first refused to participate, finance, etc.. then blackmailed.
                      For evident existential reasons, the pipe was a National Security matter for us, and at that time (Kocharian's) Russia was much weaker, less on the return, and we still had some room to move, some independence... in which case, Russia finally did 'permit' the construction of a very limited, small caliber pipe, insuring no transit possibility.
                      Interestingly, nor the US or the EU, supposedly at odds with Iran, did object to the project, while the 'friendly' Russia did in every way (in doing so, helping the turkish policy of Armenia's blockade..)
                      The pipe was built as a state property, with significant iranian financial investment; That is, it was nor financed, nor owned by Hayrusgazart, which already was partly russian..;
                      With every 'russian' renewal of gas contract, the russian share in Hayrusgazart got bigger, and out of the blue, the pipe was handed to an effective russian control...
                      For the Iranian's, that was a betrayal from our part, to say the least.
                      While, on a sole gas aspect, the potential Armenian corridor (Independent from regional and historic Archrival Turkey + Gas monopolist and economic Oligarkh/competitor Russia, not to mention direct enemy Azarbaijan , turkish crony and existential threat) is more than interesting for Iran, worth any price/investment, making deals with a subsidiary of Gazprom, to feed a ridiculously small market, enriching its competitor Gazprom is effectively of no interest... (the only option left in fact for them).

                      5/ To my knowledge, and without disclosing any non public info, I can state, that at least in the early stages of our existential war, Iran did contribute to our victories, at least as much of ANY other ally or friend we might had..;
                      From an Iranian eye, the victory in NKR is partly owed to them, or is their success too, while from a Russian perspective, the situation is a reality they had to accept and adapt, certainly not the initial outcome they planned...

                      6/ For Iran, the existence of 170 Km of common border with NKR, free of Russian presence is of great importance. The 'return' of any Km is betrayal from our part, to Iran's National Interest. The entrance of any Russian, of NATO force in that zone, is a major threat to their national security... for that end, every time, the pressure growing on us from east or West, making any concession from our part is seen as a major threat for them, lately Iranian delegation's visit after Vienna meeting... In this context, a trustworthy, Independent Armenia, contering the major problems Iran's is faced to, promissing the dreamed access to EU markets, would largely be entiteled to 'cheap' gas... not a Russian forepost, achieving the Blockade of EU markets to Iran...

                      7/ Look what's the options's left for Iran's gas exports:
                      -Liquid Gas: very expensive, and technologically problematic, specially if it is via Bandar Abbas (Hormuz gate's security)
                      -Via Turkey: actually the only way, but Iran would like to make this the least important.
                      -Via Irak/Syria(Tartus terminal in dare conditions) or the same Irak/Syria(Homs gate)/Lebanon (Tripoli terminal, resting iddle since the 70's): no need to discuss risks by today
                      - Via Azerbaijan: the least wanted, nightmare scenario, our 'betrayal' will force them to...

                      ----
                      Finally on Eddo's comment:
                      I am surprised anybody questions Russian role in NKR war on Azari side in Goltzo operation, and in 13 June 1992; It is widely known and documented fact, at least on the Armenian side. Those who tend to undermine the fact, are or perfectly ignorants, or forced to ignore, by our 'ally'.

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